BAGHDAD — On Wednesday, Iraq launched its first nationwide population census in decades, marking a significant step towards enhancing data collection and urban planning in a nation that has struggled with conflict and political fragmentation.

The census holds considerable importance and is expected to impact the allocation of resources, budgetary distributions, and developmental policies across the country. However, it also comes with controversy as various minority groups express anxiety about a potential decrease in their population numbers, which might diminish their political power and access to economic resources within Iraq’s sectarian power-sharing framework.

Tensions regarding the census are particularly high in contested regions such as Kirkuk, Diyala, and Mosul, which are under dispute between Iraq’s central administration in Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq. Ali Arian Saleh, the executive director overseeing the census for the Ministry of Planning, stated that agreements were reached on how to conduct the census in these disputed areas during discussions among the prime minister, president, and high-ranking officials from the Kurdish region.

To ensure a balanced representation, Saleh emphasized that researchers from diverse ethnic backgrounds, including Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, and Christians, will be involved in conducting the census in these regions.

The last full national census in Iraq occurred in 1987, while another conducted in 1997 did not include the Kurdish region. In a televised statement, Planning Minister Mohammed Tamim asserted that this new census “creates a roadmap for development in the future” and signifies a message of stability.

This census is the first to utilize modern technology for both data collection and analysis, allowing for a thorough understanding of Iraq’s demographic, social, and economic landscape. Approximately 120,000 census workers are set to survey households nationwide, with each worker assigned to around 160 housing units over a two-day period.

To facilitate the efficient execution of the census, the Interior Ministry has announced a nationwide curfew that will limit the movement of people, vehicles, and trains between cities, districts, and rural regions, with exceptions made for humanitarian emergencies.

Saleh revealed that the census will utilize the “de jure” method which means individuals will be counted where they usually reside. As a result, those displaced by the prolonged conflict will be counted in their current locations rather than their home communities. It is important to note that the census will not account for Iraqis living abroad or those who have been forcibly displaced to other nations.

Saleh estimated that Iraq’s total population stands at approximately 44.5 million, specifying that the Kurdish region is expected to have about 6 million residents, which currently impacts its allocation of 12% of the national budget. The census will also provide clarity on the number of public sector employees within the region.

Following an order from Iraq’s federal court, the census will omit questions regarding ethnic and sectarian identities, opting instead for broad classifications centered on religions like Islam and Christianity. Saleh indicated that this method aims to minimize tensions and focus on developmental objectives rather than divisive issues.

Saleh also mentioned that international observers will monitor the census across various provinces to ensure the quality and reliability of the data collected.

Hogr Chato, head of the Irbil-based Public Aid Organization, stated that the census would fundamentally alter political dynamics and future decision-making processes. He expressed that the outcomes of the census will have significant political and economic repercussions, suggesting that budget allocations should reflect population distributions, especially in war-affected regions that require additional resources.

Chato speculated that the delays in conducting the census stemmed not only from security risks but also from political motives that might have prevented revealing sensitive data, such as poverty levels in different governorates.

Prior to the census, community leaders encouraged residents to participate in the count. Abdul Wahhab al-Samarrai, a preacher at the Imam Abu Hanifa Mosque in Baghdad’s Adhamiyah district, urged citizens to engage fully in the census process, framing it as a civic duty essential for ensuring the rights of future generations during a sermon delivered the week before the counting began.