Global Leaders Gather in Brazil Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

RIO DE JANEIRO — As Brazil gears up to host the Group of 20 summit, the prospects for a significant geopolitical agreement among the major economies seem bleak. The summit, scheduled for Monday and Tuesday in Rio de Janeiro, is overshadowed by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the recent electoral win of Donald Trump in the United States.

The current international landscape, marked by rising tensions and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s administration, has diminished hopes for a decisive collective statement on these issues. Analysts predict that the final communique will more likely center on social concerns, such as the fight against hunger, which remains a priority for Brazil, though it may still acknowledge the ongoing wars.

“Brazilian diplomacy has been very active in this area, but expecting to achieve a robust and broadly agreed statement in 2024, given the presence of two significant international crises, is an ambitious goal,” commented Cristiane Lucena Carneiro, an international relations expert at the University of Sao Paulo.

After President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s defeat of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections, there was optimism regarding Lula’s potential to revitalize Brazil’s international role. Lula, known for his diplomatic acumen and previously described by Barack Obama as “the most popular politician on Earth,” assumed the G20 presidency at a time when Bolsonaro had shown little interest in global summits and had fostered a confrontational foreign policy.

Lula’s administration has revived a long-standing commitment to non-alignment, aiming to preserve Brazil’s interests within a multipolar global system. This approach allows Brazil to negotiate with all sides, positioning the country as a desirable host for the G20 summit.

Nevertheless, some of Lula’s foreign policy decisions have drawn criticism. A proposed peace initiative involving Brazil and China concerning Russia and Ukraine did not advocate for a Russian withdrawal and was met with disapproval from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Lula further faced diplomatic backlash after he likened Israel’s military actions in Gaza to the Holocaust.

The recent election victory of Donald Trump and the expected resurgence of an “America First” approach may complicate diplomatic negotiations, constraining the ability to reach consensus on contentious international issues.

Negotiators from Argentina have emerged as a point of contention in the talks, hindering the development of a unified declaration, according to two Brazilian officials and one from another G20 nation who spoke on condition of anonymity. They revealed that Argentina’s representatives have voiced numerous objections to the draft, particularly opposing a previously accepted clause that would impose a global tax on the ultra-wealthy, as well as language encouraging gender equality.

On November 8, Ambassador Mauricio Lyrio, Brazil’s chief negotiator for the G20, mentioned that the final declaration should address both the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern conflicts, but discussions are ongoing to find language that can be accepted universally.

“The primary message is, of course, to emphasize the need for peace, not just in these specific conflicts, but in all areas,” he asserted in Brasilia, adding that Lula’s new initiative for a global alliance against hunger and poverty is equally significant as the final declaration.

The fight against hunger has been a focal point for Lula, a former union leader with humble roots, during his past presidencies, where he succeeded in significantly reducing hunger rates in Brazil. According to a 2014 U.N. report, the undernourished Brazilian population decreased by more than 80% over a decade.

According to political analyst Thomas Traumann, it appears that Lula’s hunger initiative will be the solitary success from Brazil’s objectives for the G20 declaration. “Brazil had aspirations for a global agreement on poverty reduction, initiatives for financing a green economy, and some form of consensus on taxing the rich. Only the first goal remains attainable,” Traumann stated.

President Joe Biden plans to attend the summit following his commitment to the APEC forum in Lima, with further travel to Manaus, located in the Amazon rainforest. This visit marks a historic first for a sitting U.S. president and aims to showcase Biden’s dedication to environmental protection and cultural respect for local communities.

White House officials assert that Biden’s participation in both APEC and the G20 will focus on crucial discussions surrounding climate change, global infrastructure development, combating drug trafficking, and engaging individually with other leaders, including China’s President Xi Jinping. They also affirm that Biden will advocate for continued support for Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict with Russia, while also addressing the crises in Lebanon and Gaza.

However, international relations expert Danielle Ayres cautions that any commitments made by Biden could be reversed by the next presidential administration. “For Trump to act otherwise would entail a significant political cost and could undermine international perceptions of his leadership,” Ayres explained.

Trump’s return to power might also prompt some nations to seek stronger ties with China. The recent inauguration of a major port in Peru by Xi Jinping could signal a shift in Latin America’s diplomatic orientation.

Notably absent from the G20 summit will be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces a warrant from the International Criminal Court, leading to Sergey Lavrov heading the Russian delegation instead. Israel, meanwhile, is not included as a G20 member.

“Recent G20 meetings have been somewhat diluted and turned into mere opportunities for bilateral discussions between leaders. With Putin’s absence, Lula managed to minimize discussion on Ukraine, similar to the situation with Israel, but Trump’s election diminishes Lula’s potential prominence on this stage,” Traumann remarked.