KYIV, Ukraine — As Russian tanks invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many believed that Kyiv would quickly succumb, and the rest of the nation would not withstand the overwhelming might of its adversary.
The anticipated narrative, however, failed to materialize. Ukraine’s military demonstrated it could not only halt the progress of the Russian forces but, with robust Western support, could also sustain its fight for sovereignty.
Nearly three years into the conflict, the situation has once again turned dire. Russia continues to deploy extensive military resources, along with significant manpower, making slow yet consistent territorial advancements within the almost 20% of Ukraine it currently occupies.
Meanwhile, Ukraine faces the daunting task of limiting losses, preserving morale, and urging its allies for additional military assistance to shift the momentum of the war in its favor.
As this arduous war of attrition approaches its 1,000th day, both sides display reluctance to pursue negotiations. The prospect of former President Donald Trump ending the conflict offers some hope, though the specifics of his strategy remain uncertain, raising questions about the potential impact on the conflict’s balance.
According to strategic studies expert Phillips O’Brien from the University of St. Andrews, this environment shapes Russia’s tactics in eastern Ukraine. Trump’s potential decision to halt military aid to Ukraine could lead to an enforced end to the conflict, with the possibility of a frozen conflict in mind.
O’Brien noted, “If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine and a cease-fire occurs, Russia aims to solidify as much ground as possible.” For Ukraine, any possible cease-fire must include assurances from Western allies that future Russian incursions will be thwarted. “Without those guarantees, a cease-fire simply paves the way for ongoing instability in Europe,” he added.
Initially, during the war’s first year, Ukraine did suffer significant territorial losses but also achieved crucial victories. It managed to resist a more formidable foe with superior airforce capabilities, thus retaining its independence and reclaiming some areas through courageous counteroffensives. This boosted confidence among Ukraine and its affluent allies to continue fighting.
The second year was marked by catastrophic losses, such as Ukraine’s retreat from Bakhmut, resulting in both sides reaching a stalemate along a front line that spans approximately 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). Toward the close of that year, delays in the approval of a substantial $61 billion U.S. aid package for military, economic, and humanitarian support hindered Ukraine’s efforts.
As the third year unfolded, the situation intensified, with dwindling ammunition resulting in growing challenges. February 2024 brought the fall of Avdiivka after extensive Russian aerial bombardment utilizing renovated Soviet-era bombs.
This defeat opened significant vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s defense network and further strained its resources when Russian forces began assaults on northeastern cities like Kharkiv. Despite setbacks, September, however, brought a surge of optimism for Ukraine with an unexpected incursion into Russian territory, capturing and maintaining control over hundreds of square kilometers in the Kursk region.
While this move could play a strategic role in future ceasefire discussions, Russian troops continued to claim more territory in the east. “Russians are enduring significant losses, but they are willing to continue sacrificing lives for minor territorial gains,” remarked Justin Crump from strategic advisory firm Sibylline.
Estimates suggest tens of thousands of soldiers have lost their lives on both sides since the war’s beginning, while data indicates that at least 11,700 Ukrainian civilians have been killed. Though Russia has captured about 2,455 square kilometers (948 square miles) this year—less than 1% of Ukraine’s pre-war area—this territorial acquisition has profound psychological impacts.
Analysts observe that as Ukraine retreats, the dynamics resemble those of the war’s initial weeks, which arguably enhances Russia’s position—not necessarily in military terms, but in morale, according to Mykola Bielieskov from CBA Initiatives Center in Kyiv.
Both Ukraine and Russia have had to seek outside resources to sustain their war efforts. Iran has been providing drones and potential missiles to Russia, while North Korea has contributed munitions and even soldiers to bolster Russian operations.
Despite President Vladimir Putin claiming 700,000 troops are engaged in Ukraine, analysts suggest a larger mobilization is crucial for accelerating ground advances. However, internal dissent is a significant concern, and thus further troop mobilization appears unlikely.
The territorial foothold Ukraine has established in Kursk complicates Putin’s strategy, offering potential leverage in future negotiations. Ukrainian commander Captain Yevhen Karas believes that the evolving situation inside Russia could effectively distract and drain Russian resources.
“Even a slow, retreating front can wear down the enemy significantly,” Karas said. Ukraine has sought longer-range missiles and permission to target deeper into Russian territory, yet its allies remain cautious, concerned about escalating tensions with nuclear-capable Russia.
Since the onset of the conflict, the U.S. has committed over $64 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. Many soldiers express anxieties regarding their prospects without continued American support.
“Courage, valor, and determination alone won’t suffice,” remarked a Ukrainian serviceman stationed in the eastern Donetsk region, who requested anonymity per military protocols.
He stated, “Here, Russian infantry outnumbers us ten to one.” The ongoing war and its increasing casualty toll pose significant challenges for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as troop replacement becomes a rapidly growing issue.
The future trajectory of the conflict will largely hinge on the upcoming Trump administration’s approach.
Trump, who has often highlighted his amicable relationship with President Putin and characterized the invasion as a strategic move, has repeatedly critiqued U.S. support for Ukraine.
His ambiguous responses during campaign debates regarding Ukraine’s potential triumph have raised alarms over the possibility of Ukraine being pressured into accepting unfavorable negotiation terms.
Lacking Western security assurances, Ukraine risks further vulnerability to renewed Russian assaults. Analysts caution that a cease-fire based on current battlefield conditions might set an alarming precedent, suggesting military redressment of Europe’s borders is acceptable—a notion not seen since World War II.
Richard Connolly, an expert in Russian affairs, warns that such an outcome could encourage other nations, including China and India, viewing it as a strategic loss for both Ukraine and the West.
As winter approaches anew amid ongoing conflict, Ukrainian soldiers maintain steadfast resolve.
“We are determined, giving our all, and will not surrender,” asserted a battalion chief of staff stationed in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. “The priority is to avoid losing further territory.”