MIAMI — Growing up in Miami among Cuban exiles who escaped Fidel Castro’s regime, Senator Marco Rubio has developed a profound opposition to communism. Now, as the appointed Secretary of State under President-elect Donald Trump, he is poised to apply that ideological perspective to U.S. policies concerning Latin America.

As the first Latino to hold the position of Secretary of State, Rubio is anticipated to place significant emphasis on what has often been derogatorily labeled as Washington’s backyard. The senior Republican member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and a veteran of the Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio has utilized his expertise and extensive personal connections to influence U.S. policy in Latin America for years.

In the decades following the Cold War, Latin America has gradually diminished in importance on the U.S. foreign policy agenda, especially as rivals like Russia, Iran, and especially China have made inroads into the area. If Rubio receives confirmation, he is expected to change that trend of neglect.

However, Rubio’s reputation as a national security enthusiast, his alignment with Trump’s plan for extensive deportation of migrants, and his tendency for divisive rhetoric could create friction even with U.S. allies in the region who may not agree with the incoming administration’s America First strategy.

“Typically, Latin American policy is managed by junior officers,” noted Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow at Chatham House in London. “Rubio, however, is very focused on the region. He will ensure that local governments align closely with the U.S. if they wish to strengthen their relations.”

Although Rubio, through a spokesperson, refrained from commenting on his foreign policy aspirations, his previously articulated views on Latin America starkly contrast with the Biden administration’s emphasis on multilateral diplomacy and engagement with U.S. critics.

Expect Rubio’s primary focus in the region to center on Mexico, particularly in areas such as trade, drug trafficking, and immigration. Previously, he had sponsored bipartisan reforms aimed at allowing undocumented migrants a pathway to citizenship, but he shifted towards a more hardline stance during Trump’s tenure, advocating for enhanced border security and mass deportations.

Rubio has shared little in terms of opinion regarding Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Nonetheless, he was vocally critical of her predecessor Andres Manuel López Obrador, who controversially opted out of the U.S.-hosted Summit of the Americas for a gathering of left-leaning leaders in Cuba. Rubio accused López Obrador of siding with drug cartels and acting as an “apologist for tyranny” concerning nations like Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, to which the Mexican president retorted by labeling Rubio a “racist.”

Despite this diplomatic rift, López Obrador was later received by President Joe Biden at the White House, hailed as a “friend” and “partner.” “That kind of welcome won’t occur under Rubio’s watch,” Sabatini remarked, noting Rubio’s strict oversight of adherence to his policy preferences.

At the age of 53, Rubio has long been an influential voice on Latin American matters to Trump and has not hesitated to leverage this influence to advocate for a tough stance in the region. A prominent critic of increasing Russian and Chinese influence in Latin America, Rubio is positioned to penalize nations that engage with the U.S.’s geopolitical adversaries or those that do not align with U.S. support for Israel.

When Trump scrapped what would have been his inaugural presidential visit to Latin America in 2018, Rubio stepped in, partaking in discussions and photo ops at the Summit of the Americas in Peru with leaders from various countries including Argentina and Haiti.

“No one in the Senate possesses his extensive knowledge of Latin America,” stated Carlos Trujillo, a close friend of Rubio and former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States. “Not only does he have strong personal relationships with numerous officials—some spanning decades—but he has also played a key role in vetting many U.S. ambassadors sent to the region. This is a substantial advantage.”

Rubio appears ready to collaborate with leaders like Argentine President Javier Milei, whose assertive approach and transformation from TV figure to far-right politician evoke comparisons to Trump. Similarly, he has shown support for El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who has received accolades for his anti-gang initiatives that previously compelled massive migration from El Salvador to the U.S.

Rubio has not shied away from using his political clout to confront leftist leaders he considers detrimental to U.S. security interests. He has even targeted moderate democratically elected leaders, such as Chilean President Gabriel Boric, criticizing him for allegedly providing refuge for Hezbollah financiers and dubbing him “one of the leading anti-Israel voices in Latin America.”

His most significant impact could arguably be seen regarding Venezuela. Shortly after Trump took office, Rubio facilitated a White House visit for the wife of prominent Venezuelan dissenter Leopoldo López. This visit, captured in a photograph alongside Trump in the Oval Office, catapulted Venezuela onto the U.S. foreign policy agenda, marking a departure from previous administrations’ reticent approaches.

Over the next few years, Trump enacted severe oil sanctions against Venezuela, charged various officials with corruption, and floated the idea of a “military option” for ousting President Nicolás Maduro. In 2019, during peak Rubio influence, the U.S. acknowledged National Assembly President Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader.

However, this combative strategy, which resonated among exiles in South Florida, backfired on Trump, who later admitted he had misjudged the opposition’s strength. This dynamic arguably bolstered Maduro’s position and facilitated greater Russian, Chinese, and Iranian involvement in the country, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis that displaced millions seeking refuge in the U.S.

Michael Shifter, a former leader at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, speculated that Trump might take a more lenient approach towards Maduro this time despite Rubio’s role as Secretary of State, potentially continuing diplomatic engagements and sanction relief similar to Biden’s policies.

Trujillo believes Rubio’s forthright nature will be advantageous in negotiations with both allies and adversaries, provided he can moderate his sometimes fiery rhetoric. “He’ll be adopting a different role now, but he is a skilled negotiator and I have full confidence he will handle it effectively,” Trujillo remarked.

With Trump appointing another staunch critic of Maduro, Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida, as his national security adviser, Trujillo suggests that Maduro and his authoritarian counterparts in Cuba and Nicaragua should be on alert.

So far, officials from Venezuela and Cuba, who frequently critique the U.S. on social media, have not issued statements regarding Rubio’s nomination and have remained largely silent following Trump’s electoral victory.

“There exists an opportunity for negotiations, but it must be approached with sincerity,” Trujillo asserted. “Should they fail to comply, there will be repercussions.”