TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — As President-elect Donald Trump selects individuals for his incoming administration from his private club in Palm Beach, he is simultaneously bringing Florida into the spotlight.
With Senator Marco Rubio slated to be the next secretary of state, Representative Matt Gaetz nominated for the role of attorney general, and Representative Mike Waltz in the running for national security adviser, Trump’s reliance on Floridians is creating a ripple effect that could shape political dynamics in the state for the years ahead. Florida’s Republican Governor, Ron DeSantis—once a contender against Trump for the presidential nomination—will play a crucial part in this unfolding scenario.
The nomination of Gaetz for the Department of Justice, particularly given previous investigations into allegations of sex trafficking against him, has sent waves through political circles in Washington. His confirmation as the leading law enforcement official is uncertain. With Gaetz resigning from his position for Florida’s 1st Congressional District, this resignation concludes an investigation by the House Ethics Committee regarding his alleged misconduct and drug use, though these matters could arise during Senate confirmation discussions. Gaetz, however, has firmly denied all allegations.
On the other hand, Waltz, a congressman representing Florida’s 6th Congressional District near Jacksonville, has not yet stepped down, nor has Rubio. Meanwhile, Florida Republicans are calculating potential opportunities that could arise from these openings.
Federal and state regulations dictate distinct processes for filling vacancies in the U.S. House and Senate. In the case of an open House seat, Florida is required to conduct a special election, allowing voters to select their next representative. Conversely, the Senate scenario permits DeSantis to appoint someone to take over Rubio’s role, contingent on his confirmation as secretary of state. The appointed successor would serve until the next scheduled election in 2026.
Some names being considered for Rubio’s Senate position include DeSantis himself. A Tallahassee-based elections attorney mentioned, “I’m not familiar with anything that prevents him from naming himself, other than hubris, I suppose.”
DeSantis’ gubernatorial term will come to an end in 2026, once again positioning the state’s top executive office for election and presenting its own set of political opportunities. Given the possibility of another presidential campaign in 2028, Florida political analysts suggest it may not benefit DeSantis to appoint himself to the Senate. First lady Casey DeSantis is also speculated to be a contender with her own political aspirations.
While addressing students at Notre Dame the week prior to Rubio’s nomination, DeSantis avoided questions about joining Trump’s administration. He stated, “I’m not seeking anything. I’ve got a great job in the state of Florida.” He emphasized the value of continuing his role to make a difference in the state, implying that leading Florida allows him to have the greatest impact.
Other potential nominees for Rubio’s position could include DeSantis’ lieutenant governor Jeanette Nuñez, who could make history as the state’s first female governor if DeSantis were to nominate himself, or state Attorney General Ashley Moody. Another name circulating in Trump’s circle is Lara Trump, who was previously suggested for co-chairing the Republican National Committee, and resides in Palm Beach County with her husband.
Regarding the House vacancies, state officials have yet to announce specific dates for a special election but express an intent to act promptly.
DeSantis recently instructed Secretary of State Cord Byrd to develop and announce a schedule for upcoming special elections as soon as possible. Byrd has indicated that his team is actively working on this and will provide a timeline shortly.
In light of Gaetz’s resignation, House Speaker Mike Johnson portrayed this decision as a way to expedite filling the resulting vacancy as Republicans aim to consolidate their slender majority moving into the next year.
Experts in Florida elections highlighted that the process could span several months due to legal requirements for announcing the elections, sending mail ballots to military and overseas voters, and certifying primary results, compounded by the logistical challenges of conducting another election so soon after a significant presidential cycle. This scenario has the potential to further weaken the already slim Republican majority in the House throughout the early part of 2025.
As put forth by an elections law expert at Florida State University, “There is a bit of flexibility for a few of these things, but it seems like there’s no practical way of having a replacement House member in less than half a year.” Following state records, the most recent special election to fill a U.S. House seat vacancy took 10 weeks from primary to general election.