WASHINGTON — Following recent vote updates over the weekend and on Monday, Democrat Ruben Gallego was announced the victor in the contest for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat. His expanding lead effectively eliminated any remaining chances of a win for Republican Kari Lake.

As of the time of the announcement, which occurred at 11:49 p.m. ET, Gallego secured 50% of the votes compared to Lake’s 48%, establishing a gap of nearly 73,000 votes with about 95% of all ballots accounted for. For Lake to surpass Gallego, she would have needed to dominate the estimated 181,000 remaining ballots, winning approximately 70% of them, a feat considered too challenging. The majority of these uncounted votes originate from Maricopa and Pima counties, where Lake was securing only 46% and 38% of the votes, respectively. In a significant vote update that took place Monday night, Lake managed to garner only 42% in Maricopa, falling far short of the requirements to close the gap with Gallego.

The decision to declare a winner is only made once it is clear that the candidate trailing in votes cannot catch up to the leading candidate.

Here’s a breakdown of the candidates and the election:
CANDIDATES: Gallego (D) vs. Lake (R) vs. Eduardo Quintana (Green).
WINNER: Gallego
POLL CLOSING TIME: 9 p.m. ET on November 5. Arizona refrains from releasing any vote counts until every precinct has reported or one hour has passed since the polls closed, generally around 10 p.m. ET.

The Senate seat in Arizona became available when incumbent independent Kyrsten Sinema opted not to pursue a second term. This election matchup presented Lake, a former local TV news anchor and 2022 candidate for governor, against Gallego, who is a five-term U.S. representative and a Marine veteran. After transitioning from news anchor to political figure, Lake gained popularity among the populist right but has struggled to reinvent her public image following her 2022 gubernatorial loss. She continues to contest that election’s results in courts even as she campaigns for the Senate.

Gallego represents areas in Phoenix that have a high Latino demographic and has focused his campaign on highlighting his military background and personal journey in conjunction with his progressive track record in Congress.

Arizona has witnessed a near equal split in statewide election outcomes since 2016. The state swayed towards former President Donald Trump with approximately 49% in that election and approximately 51% in his 2020 bid, according to the latest counts. However, Democratic figures have found victory in Senate, presidential, and gubernatorial races in 2018, 2020, and 2022.

The reasoning behind the race’s declaration is tied to enduring patterns in statewide elections over the last twelve years. Democrats have consistently won or lost elections while holding onto four counties: Apache, Coconino, Pima, and Santa Cruz. Candidates from the Democratic Party who have also captured the key demographic votes in Maricopa have typically secured overall wins, while those who fell short in Maricopa have also lost statewide.

At the time of the race call, Gallego maintained a strong lead in these crucial Democratic counties and was slightly ahead in Maricopa, outperforming Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by nearly 4 percentage points in that region. On the other hand, for Lake to surpass Gallego’s lead, she would require around 69% of the votes from the remaining uncounted ballots. More than two-thirds of these ballots come from Maricopa and the key Democratic counties, locations where she was not achieving anywhere near the 60% threshold needed to maintain competitiveness. Although Lake holds approximately 60% of the vote in three areas known for their Republican lean, she needs to achieve an even higher margin in these counties to compensate for her lower numbers elsewhere, where recent updates have indicated that she is unlikely to meet those critical benchmarks.