SACRAMENTO, Calif. — The California Air Resources Board is preparing to vote on significant amendments to a pivotal climate initiative intended to curb greenhouse gas emissions from transportation fuels. This proposed change has drawn criticism from various groups, including environmental organizations and the oil sector.
The agency is set to deliberate on revisions to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). This regulation mandates that the state lower the environmental impact of transportation fuels while providing incentives for producers to minimize their emissions. The proposed adjustments include raising the state’s emissions reduction goals and allocating funds for charging stations supporting zero-emission vehicles. Additionally, there are plans to end incentives for utilizing methane emissions from dairy farming as fuel.
Environmental activists have voiced opposition to this initiative, claiming that it promotes biofuel production—drawn from resources such as plants and livestock waste—when attention should be more focused on enhancing support for electric vehicles. They assert that the plan does not effectively tackle their concerns about sustainable energy sources.
Critics from the oil industry, along with some lawmakers, argue that the California Air Resources Board has not offered sufficient transparency regarding the potential rise in gasoline prices due to the revised proposals. A cost-benefit study released by the agency last year projected that gas prices might spike by 47 cents per gallon by the year 2025 under the original plan. However, subsequent updates to the proposal have not been accompanied by a new cost assessment, as the agency claims it is unable to reliably forecast fuel prices.
“We must make a compelling argument for why drivers should bear the burden of increased costs from this program,” stated Danny Cullenward, a climate economist affiliated with the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy. He predicts that gas prices could rise as much as 85 cents a gallon by 2030 and $1.50 a gallon by 2035 under the new framework.
Jodie Muller, chief operating officer of the Western States Petroleum Association, expressed general support for the program but emphasized the need for clearer information on how it contributes to a rise in gas prices.
The California Air Resources Board contends that this program will ultimately lead to reduced costs for sustainable transportation fuels over time. Established in 2009, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard was the first such initiative in the United States and is integral to California’s overarching strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. This goal entails the state removing a volume of carbon emissions equal to what it puts out. Recent years have seen California implementing measures to phase out the sale of new fossil fuel-powered vehicles and equipment.
Steven Cliff, executive officer of the California Air Resources Board, affirmed at a news conference last month that the low carbon fuel standard has already been effective in fostering the development of more affordable, lesser polluting alternatives and argued that the advantages of the new proposal significantly outweigh its costs.
This upcoming vote follows a special legislative session called by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom aimed at safeguarding California’s progressive environmental policies in anticipation of former President Donald Trump potentially returning to office.
In 2019, the Trump administration revoked California’s autonomy to implement its own tailpipe emissions regulations, a decision later reversed during President Joe Biden’s administration and upheld by the federal courts.
As future challenges from the Trump administration loom, legal battles may ensue, according to David Pettit, a senior attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute. He emphasized the necessity for initiatives that promote the growth of electric vehicles and their supporting infrastructure amidst these uncertainties, suggesting that the LCFS might serve as an effective mechanism for achieving that end.