Atlanta will clash with New Orleans on Sunday at 1 p.m. EST, broadcasting on Fox. Currently, BetMGM’s odds favor the Falcons by 3.5 points. In their historical matchup, the Falcons lead the series with a record of 56 wins to 55 losses. This season, Atlanta has been performing well against the spread with a 5-4 record, while the Saints sit at 3-6. The last encounter between the two teams ended in favor of the Falcons, who edged out the Saints 26-24 on September 29, 2024, in a game held in Atlanta.
In their previous outings, Atlanta triumphed over the Cowboys with a score of 27-21, whereas New Orleans faced a narrow 23-22 defeat against the Panthers. Offensively, the Falcons rank eighth overall, 18th in rushing, and sixth in passing, resulting in a 12th-place scoring position. Defensively, they rank 20th overall, 23rd against the run, and 20th against the pass, giving up points at a rate that places them 20th in scoring defense. The Saints’ offense rates 16th overall, with their rushing and passing ranks at 13th and 18th, respectively. However, their defense has struggled significantly, ranking 28th overall, 25th against the run, and 27th against the pass.
One standout for the Falcons to watch is tight end Kyle Pitts, who is aiming to bounce back after a lackluster performance last week where he recorded only one catch for 11 yards. His previous game resulted in four catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns, showcasing his potential when fully utilized. With the uncertain status of wide receiver Drake London due to a hip injury, Atlanta may need to rely more heavily on Pitts. So far this season, Pitts boasts 30 catches for 430 yards, matching his best touchdown output of three, which reflects his strongest play since his rookie season in 2021.
On the other side, Saints running back Alvin Kamara is a significant player to keep an eye on. He has amassed 1,027 total yards from scrimmage this season, including 660 rushing yards with six touchdowns. A mere 12 more rushing yards will allow Kamara to break the franchise record for career rushing yards, surpassing the previous record held by Mark Ingram.
The matchup to highlight is between the Saints’ weakened secondary and the Falcons’ robust passing offense. Recently, the Saints traded away their star cornerback Marshon Lattimore and lost starting corner Paulson Adebo for the season due to a broken leg. Additionally, the availability of rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry is uncertain as he recovers from a hamstring injury. Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2,328 yards this season, ranking fourth in the NFL, with his primary receiving targets being Darnell Mooney and Drake London, who have 588 and 552 receiving yards, respectively.
In terms of injuries, the Falcons are monitoring defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, who is day-to-day with an Achilles strain, along with wide receiver Drake London, whose hip pointer will dictate his availability. Linebacker Troy Andersen is nearing a return after missing five games, while center Drew Dalman has been sidelined for six games. The Saints also have injury concerns, with guard Lucas Patrick’s right ankle raising questions about his status. Wide receiver Chris Olave’s return is also uncertain as he is dealing with the aftermath of a concussion and is taking his recovery on a daily basis.
Notably, the home team has had the edge in the last four matchups, and historically, the Falcons have not completed a season series sweep since 2016, with the Saints managing to sweep in 2022.
In other stats, the Falcons remain undefeated against NFC South opponents this season, and running back Bijan Robinson put up impressive numbers against Dallas with 145 total scrimmage yards. After a shaky start to the season at 1-2, Atlanta has rebounded to win five out of their last six games. As for Kirk Cousins, he requires only three touchdown passes to tie Johnny Unitas all-time. Meanwhile, the Saints have been struggling, suffering seven consecutive losses which recently culminated in the firing of their head coach Dennis Allen, leading to special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi taking the reins as interim head coach.
In a strategic play, the Saints executed a successful fake punt last week, exemplifying their need for innovative tactics amidst their struggles. Quarterback Derek Carr returned from an injury to throw for 236 yards and a touchdown last week, and Alvin Kamara proved his worth with six receptions for a career-high 215 scrimmage yards. Tight end Taysom Hill is also a player to watch, with consistent scoring throughout the season.
For fantasy enthusiasts, Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier has proven effective against the Saints, averaging an impressive 7 yards per carry over his four games against them.