WASHINGTON — Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin has been projected to secure reelection to the U.S. Senate representing Wisconsin after it became evident that Republican challenger Eric Hovde could not overcome the vote deficit, even with uncounted ballots remaining. As the vote count neared completion, Baldwin was declared the winner by election monitors.

At approximately 1:42 p.m. ET on Wednesday, the race was called for Baldwin. Hovde needed to win nearly all of the outstanding votes, a significant number of which were concentrated in areas that traditionally lean Democratic.

Baldwin’s victory is crucial, as she was among five Senate Democrats in competitive races, with the balance of power in the Senate at stake. Election calls are made only when it is clear that a trailing candidate cannot catch up with the leading candidate’s vote total.

Breaking down the contest:
– CANDIDATES: Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R) and two other candidates
– WINNER: Tammy Baldwin
– POLL CLOSING TIME: 9 p.m. ET

Overview of the race:
Baldwin faced a formidable contest from Hovde, as she sought a third term in the Senate. The election was marked by significant financial backing for both candidates, with Baldwin needing to fend off a well-known, well-funded opponent supported by former President Trump. The stakes were especially high, with the potential loss of any one of these vulnerable Democrats threatening the party’s control over the Senate.

Baldwin initially was elected to the Senate in 2012, defeating then-Governor Tommy Thompson with 51% of the vote, and she reinforced her position in 2018 with a stronger margin of 55%. The combined spending on advertising for both Baldwin and Hovde, along with their allied groups, exceeded $160 million, as per estimates from a campaign ad tracking entity. Baldwin’s fundraising efforts outpaced Hovde’s significantly, although he had a slight advantage in cash available in mid-July due to self-funding his campaign with $20 million loans.

In Wisconsin, Democratic candidates typically garner strong support from Dane and Milwaukee counties, while Republican candidates look to capture substantial votes from Brown County and the suburban areas around Milwaukee. Furthermore, rural parts of northern Wisconsin also play a significant role in Republican voting trends.

The rationale behind the race call:
With nearly all ballots counted, Hovde faced an uphill battle, needing over 90% of the remaining uncounted votes to swing in his favor. While he performed relatively strongly in some Republican-leaning counties like Waukesha and Brown, the likelihood of enough votes left coming from densely Democratic areas such as Milwaukee and Dane significantly weakened his chances of closing the gap with Baldwin. Ultimately, Baldwin maintained a strong front due to her advantages in urban areas and held her own in typically Republican strongholds across the state.

This race underscores the complexities and dynamics of electoral contests in Wisconsin and the factors that contribute to Democratic success in traditionally competitive areas.