Inside the Numbers provides an in-depth look at NFL statistics, trends, and streaks on a weekly basis. Here’s this week’s edition.
When a football team is down by seven points nearing the end of a game and makes progress downfield, discussions often arise about whether the team should attempt a two-point conversion for the win upon scoring a touchdown.
In Week 9, teams like Tampa Bay, New England, and Seattle chose not to go for the 2-point conversion and ultimately ended their games in overtime defeats. Although the specific circumstances varied—Seattle scored with just 51 seconds remaining, the Patriots tied the game at the last moment with an exhausted Drake Maye, and the Buccaneers scored with 27 seconds left while facing off against Patrick Mahomes—the outcomes were similar.
So, were these decisions poor choices? According to historical data, the answer isn’t entirely clear. Statistically, teams that opted for the extra point in the final minute of regulation have enjoyed a marginally higher winning percentage compared to those that went for 2 points.
Sportradar has tracked these statistics since 2000, revealing that teams attempting the extra point hold a record of 37 wins, 49 losses, and 2 ties (.432) in such situations, even including the three recent losses. This data incorporates two instances where the extra point was missed, 10 occurrences where the opponent managed to score after the equalizing touchdown, and six wins that came about when the team regained possession and scored again—five of those following turnovers.
On the other hand, teams trying for 2 points have achieved a record of 10 wins and 15 losses (.400), successfully converting 12 out of their attempts. However, two of these successes resulted in losses, notably one in 2019 when the Bears converted a crucial fourth down after conceding a late 2-point conversion to Denver, which ultimately allowed the Broncos to kick a game-winning field goal.
This year’s analysis is further complicated by a marked drop in the success rate of two-point conversion attempts. From 2010 to 2023, teams managed to convert 48.7% of their attempts; this figure has plummeted to just 32.4% during the early part of the current season.
In terms of success, the Kansas City Chiefs showcased their prowess by securing an overtime victory over Tampa Bay, once again proving their ability to win closely contested matches. Their record now stands at an impressive 8-0, making them the sixth reigning Super Bowl champion to begin the subsequent season with eight consecutive victories, six of which were secured by margins of seven points or fewer.
The Chiefs have achieved an 8-0 start for only the 41st time in NFL history, boasting the lowest average margin of victory for any of those teams at just 7.0 points per game, slightly ahead of the 2006 Colts’ 7.4 points per game leading to their Super Bowl triumph.
Since suffering a loss to Las Vegas Christmas last year, Kansas City has now won 14 consecutive games—the longest winning streak in the NFL since Carolina’s 14-0 record at the start of the 2015 season. A victory against Denver this coming Sunday would mark the first 15-game win streak since Green Bay achieved 19 straight wins spanning the 2010-11 seasons.
Patrick Mahomes continues his streak of winning nail-biting matches, holding a remarkable career record of 49 wins to 12 losses (.712) in both regular season and playoff games decided by seven points or less. Only Daryle Lamonica has a superior win percentage (.771) among quarterbacks with at least 30 similar game experiences.
On the subject of achieving perfection, quarterback Lamar Jackson has distinguished himself by achieving a perfect passer rating on four separate occasions. In Baltimore’s recent win against Denver, he completed 16 passes out of 19 attempts for 280 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, thereby recording a perfect passer rating of 158.3.
This achievement has set Jackson apart as he now holds the record for the most career regular-season games with at least 15 passing attempts and a flawless rating. He achieved this feat once last year and twice during his first complete season as a starter in 2019.
Only four other quarterbacks—Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger—have accomplished this achievement three times. Notably, Manning recorded a fourth such game during the playoffs. Additionally, Jackson has now posted seven consecutive games this season with a rating of 100 or higher, which is tied for the eighth-longest streak in NFL history.
The synergy between quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has blossomed this season, with St. Brown successfully catching all of his last 30 targets from Goff after going 7 for 7 during Detroit’s victory over Green Bay. This streak is tied with Buffalo’s Khalil Shakir for the longest stretch of catches without an incompletion since the inception of NextGen stats in 2016.
Zebra Sports calculated the odds of a player making all of those catches to be approximately 1 in 780,000 based on the throw difficulties. For the season, St. Brown has caught 48 of 59 passes thrown his way from Goff, resulting in a passer rating of 133.3, ranking first among all quarterback-receiver duos with at least 40 attempts, according to Sportradar.