WASHINGTON — Republican Senator Ted Cruz has successfully retained his Senate seat, defeating Democratic Representative Colin Allred. Cruz’s strong performance in major population centers, supported by significant leads in conservative rural regions, contributed to his victory, which was officially announced at 11:39 p.m. ET. This win for Cruz has obstructed the Democrats’ efforts to maintain Senate control amid anticipated losses for some vulnerable positions across the country.
The decision to call the race comes when it is clear that a trailing candidate has no feasible path to overcome the leading candidate’s advantage. In this case, Cruz faced Allred, a former NFL player, and civil rights attorney, alongside Libertarian candidate Ted Brown.
Democrats viewed the Cruz-Allred contest as one of the few viable opportunities to flip a Republican seat, especially given their challenging Senate map this election cycle. They aimed to balance potential losses in states like West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio by winning in Texas. Cruz, who previously secured the seat in 2012 with a 16-point lead over his opponent, faced a tougher challenge in 2018 when Beto O’Rourke came within a slim margin of defeating him.
Allred, representing Texas’s 32nd Congressional District, gained prominence after defeating long-time Republican incumbent Pete Sessions in 2018; Sessions reclaimed his congressional seat in 2021. Throughout this election cycle, Allred has slightly outspent Cruz, with both candidates investing around $77 million by mid-October. However, Cruz entered the final phase of the campaign with a substantial cash edge of $9.6 million to Allred’s $2.5 million.
Historically, Texas has shifted to become a Republican stronghold since the 1990s, with no Democrat occupying a U.S. Senate seat for over three decades. In recent elections, while Democratic candidates have performed well in urban centers like Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso, Republicans consistently secure victories across most rural and suburban areas, including competitive counties around the major cities.
Cruz’s margin of victory became apparent when, with approximately 76% of votes counted, he was ahead of Allred by over 10 points statewide. He dominated in traditionally Republican areas as well as remained competitive in the Democratic hubs of Dallas and Houston. Remarkably, Cruz’s performance in these urban areas exceeded that of Donald Trump in the 2020 election, as he closed the voting gap that traditionally favored Democrats. While trailing Allred by about 4 percentage points in those regions, Trump had fared worse against Joe Biden by 8 to 9 points in the previous election.
Allred, however, fell short compared to O’Rourke’s earlier performance. He was lagging in key populous areas like Harris, Dallas, Travis, and Bexar counties while significantly trailing O’Rourke in his home county of El Paso by a staggering 15 points. To challenge Cruz’s advantageous lead, Allred would have needed to win the remaining uncounted ballots by a remarkable margin of over 30 points, a feat he was not achieving given the votes still to be tallied.