Former President Donald Trump is intensifying his calls for the announcement of the presidential election winner shortly after the polls close on Election Day. He insists that results should be declared much earlier than the completion of vote counting. Trump previously made a similar declaration in the early hours of the 2020 election, claiming victory before all ballots were counted, which led his supporters to chant for a halt in vote counting. For the past four years, Trump and some conservatives have consistently echoed claims of foul play in the 2020 election, expressing frustration over the lengthy ballot counting process in the U.S.
One major reason why results may not be available immediately on election night is the failure of Republican lawmakers in key swing states to amend laws that would facilitate quicker vote counts. Consequently, early results could show Trump in the lead, although this may shift as additional votes are counted. Experts anticipate a close election, and historically, determining the outcome of close races requires more time than those with wider margins.
Election professionals emphasize that the primary goal is to conduct a thorough and secure tally rather than to create instant suspense. “There’s nothing nefarious about the delays,” remarked Rick Hasen, a law professor at UCLA. “The timeline is there to safeguard the integrity of the election process.” Furthermore, Trump’s insistence on swift results does not seem to take into account the numerous time zones across the nation, presenting additional challenges.
According to elections expert David Becker, Trump’s insistence appears motivated by a desire for a rapid path back to the presidency rather than a genuine interest in election integrity. Becker highlighted a pattern in Trump’s rhetoric: “When he’s leading, he demands the count be stopped; when he’s trailing, he calls for it to continue.” The complexity of counting ballots in a vast system with nearly 10,000 jurisdictions makes it impractical for officials to deliver quick results.
During a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump vocalized his need for rapid results, stating, “They have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night.” It remains ambiguous who he referred to when criticizing “crooked people.” Time constraints illustrate the discrepancy between Trump’s demands and the realities of the electoral process. As polls close in Western swing states like Arizona and Nevada at 11 p.m. Eastern time, immediate answers to who won those contests are unattainable.
Trump has often compared the U.S. ballot counting system unfavorably to countries like France and Argentina, where results are announced much quicker. However, the U.S. system’s decentralized nature complicates swift declarations, as it involves tallying a multitude of local elections simultaneously, each with its distinct races and measures.
The Associated Press has established criteria for declaring winners, which may include ensuring no potential for the trailing candidate to overcome the deficit. Close races could take any amount of time to finalize results, encompassing thorough checks of every vote, including provisional ballots, the last-minute influx of military votes, and meticulous verification processes that can add to delays.
In several states, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, local election officials have urged legislators for years to modify laws that restrict the pre-Election Day processing of mail-in ballots. As a result, votes from these mail-in ballots are often counted later, typically resulting in an initial Republican lead until Democratic votes are tallied. This phenomenon has been dubbed the “red mirage” or the “blue shift.” The 2020 election saw Trump leveraging this trend to rally support for a premature end to counting votes, which were favorably skewed towards his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.
Changes have begun in Michigan, where newly elected Democratic lawmakers lifted restrictions on early mail ballot processing. State Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson expressed optimism about unveiling results by Wednesday. Jen Easterly, director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, encourages the public to heed the guidance of election officials rather than any campaign-related rhetoric.
Some of Trump’s associates are suggesting he should adopt an even bolder approach regarding announcing victory this election cycle. Steve Bannon, a key Trump ally, advised that Trump should make an announcement earlier, similar to his behavior in 2020. Additionally, former national security adviser Michael Flynn hinted at potential unrest surrounding states that may still be counting ballots, warning of the public’s possible inability to accept delayed results.
As Trump and his supporters promote theories of an imminent victory based on polling and early ballot data, it is essential to recognize that although Republicans may be outpacing Democrats in early voting in swing states, this does not reliably indicate the overall outcome of the election. Voting statistics capture participation but not preferences, leaving uncertainty. Vice President Kamala Harris has actively targeted disenchanted Republican voters, and significant numbers of independent voters may factor into a tight race. Ultimately, the only way to ascertain the election winner is to patiently wait for all votes to be properly counted, regardless of how long it takes.