WASHINGTON — With Election Day fast approaching, the countdown has begun for the final votes in the highly contested 2024 presidential election to be cast within hours. The political landscape remains deeply polarized, with the contest appearing to be a tight race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.
Seven critical battleground states will play a decisive role in determining the election outcome, provided no unforeseen events arise. Nevertheless, significant uncertainties loom regarding when results will be reported, what the voter demographics will look like, the impact of rampant misinformation, and the potential for political unrest. Both campaigns are also bracing for the likelihood of a complex legal conflict that could ensue after Election Day.
**Significance of the Election**
This election carries immense historical significance, marked by potential milestones. If Kamala Harris secures the presidency, she would be the first woman to hold the office in the nation’s 248-year history. Moreover, she would also be the first Black woman and a person of South Asian descent to do so. Although Harris has emphasized her policy agenda over her race and gender to maintain broader appeal, historians recognize the impact of her victory on future generations.
Conversely, a Trump victory would also be historically notable, as he would be the first individual with a felony conviction to assume the U.S. presidency. Trump faces 34 felony counts from a hush-money case in New York and additional charges in separate legal matters. Despite this, he claims to be the target of a politically influenced justice system, and many voters seem willing to overlook these legal challenges.
**Timing of Results**
In recent years, Election Day has evolved into Election Week as states vary in their ballot counting processes, often accompanied by legal disputes that can delay results. As such, there is considerable uncertainty around when the winner will actually be announced. In the previous elections, results were declared at markedly different times; for instance, in 2020, major news outlets made their calls several days post-election, while the 2016 results were declared in the early hours of the following day.
This year, both candidates view the race as exceedingly close across the seven swing states likely to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The combination of a large electoral map and an extremely tight race complicates the prediction of a winner’s announcement.
**Initial Voting Insights**
Two East Coast battlegrounds, North Carolina and Georgia, may provide early insights into how the election is unfolding, potentially yielding quicker returns. The initial results could offer an indication of how the night might progress. For instance, Harris will be keenly watching the urban and suburban dynamics in North Carolina’s Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, where she needs robust support to balance Trump’s strength in rural areas.
In Pennsylvania, Harris is counting on high turnout in Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia, while also bolstering numbers in suburban counties. Similarly, Trump must curb Democratic growth in Michigan and Wisconsin’s significant suburban counties.
**Candidate Campaigning on Election Day**
Trump is expected to kick-start Election Day with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, continuing a campaign tradition. Afterward, he plans to cast his vote in Florida and host a campaign watch party in Palm Beach. In contrast, Harris will celebrate Election Night at Howard University in Washington, D.C., where she completed her degree over three decades ago. She has already cast her mail-in vote and proclaimed that it is on its way to California.
**Voter Turnout**
With more than 77 million individuals already participating in early voting, the turnout dynamics on Election Day appear uncertain. Since Trump has encouraged early voting this year, Republican turnout could potentially be reduced on Election Day due to early ballots cast. Conversely, Democrats may increase their in-person voting numbers, as the pandemic no longer poses a significant threat as it did four years back.
This delicate balance will be crucial in interpreting early results, with Democrats seemingly having an edge in operational efforts, deploying a more traditional, extensive mobilization strategy compared to the Republicans, who have outsourced portions of their campaign.
**Concerns of Unrest**
In recent days, Trump has reignited baseless claims about election integrity, suggesting that the only way he can lose is through dishonesty from Democrats. This incendiary rhetoric raises the possibility of unrest reminiscent of previous unstable events. The Republican National Committee plans to deploy numerous “election integrity” monitors, which raises concerns about potential voter intimidation, prompting calls for enhanced security at polling sites.
Authorities are preparing for possible unrest on Election Day, with police in various cities ready to respond to any indications of conflict. Historically, a coalition of government officials found the 2020 election to be remarkably secure, and that assertion remains significant as tensions rise.