North Carolina (4-4, 1-3 in the ACC) is set to face Florida State (1-7, 1-6) this Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network. The odds favor North Carolina by 2.5 points in this matchup. Historically, Florida State leads with a series record of 17-3-1.
The stakes are high for North Carolina as they look to capitalize on their recent resurgence, which included a dominant 44-14 victory over Virginia last weekend. This win snapped a four-game losing streak and puts the Tar Heels in contention for bowl eligibility as they enter the final stretch of the season. In contrast, Florida State is having a challenging season, owning the worst record in ACC play since joining the conference back in 1992, with a dismal 1-6 record.
One of the critical battles in this game will be Florida State’s run defense against North Carolina’s running game. Omarion Hampton, who has compiled 1,006 rushing yards at an impressive 5.6 yards per carry average, is being touted as a top contender in the ACC by Florida State coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have struggled defensively against the run, ranking a lowly 106th in the FBS, yielding an average of 190.75 yards on the ground each game.
For Florida State, one player to keep an eye on is running back Lawrance Toafili, who leads the team in both carries and rushing yards with 279 yards on 70 attempts. However, in a recent loss to Miami, Toafili was limited to just six carries for 26 yards, alongside one reception for seven yards. Florida State will need to establish a solid running game to offer balance to their offense, especially with redshirt freshman quarterback Brock Glenn likely to make his start.
On the other side, North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton stands out as a significant player to watch. Recognized as a preseason Associated Press All-American, he currently ranks sixth in the nation with an average of 125.8 rushing yards per game and is tied for 22nd in the FBS with nine rushing touchdowns. Hampton is coming off a strong performance against Virginia, where he rushed for 105 yards and found the end zone twice.
A few notable facts include the Tar Heels’ three wins against Florida State, which came in 2001, 2010, and 2016. North Carolina coach Mack Brown has yet to secure a victory against the Seminoles, losing all eight of his previous meetings with the team, including six during his first coaching tenure and two more in 2020 and 2021. In their recent win against Virginia, the Tar Heels made history with 10 sacks, marking their best performance in that department since 2000. Interestingly, Florida State has also maintained a perfect record in November over the past two seasons, going 8-0.