Many voters in the United States are expressing significant anxiety about the potential for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East to escalate into a larger regional war, according to a recent survey. Approximately half of the respondents indicated they are either “extremely” or “very” concerned about the likelihood of this situation worsening.
Despite these worries, fewer voters—around 40%—expressed apprehension that the U.S. would become involved in the Middle East conflict. The polling took place before Israel conducted military operations against bases in Iran, marking a pivotal moment in the ongoing tensions. As the situation unfolds, candidates like former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are navigating this issue while vying for the support of Muslim and Jewish communities in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan.
A notable division exists among voters regarding responsibility for the conflict’s intensification. About 60% of surveyed individuals attribute significant blame to the Palestinian group Hamas, the Iranian government, and the militant organization Hezbollah. Roughly 40% of respondents believe that the Israeli government shares a considerable portion of the blame, while only about 20% feel that the U.S. government is significantly responsible for escalating tensions.
This survey reveals stark differences in perspective across party lines concerning the Israeli government’s culpability. Around 60% of Democrats believe that Israel holds a substantial amount of responsibility for the conflict’s escalation, paralleling the percentage who attribute similar blame to Hamas. In contrast, only about a quarter of Republicans agree that Israel bears substantial responsibility.
When discussing potential U.S. policies, voters show broad support for implementing economic sanctions against Iran. A reported 55% of voters are in favor, seeing this as a measure to curb support for Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Views are more divided regarding U.S. military aid to Israel, with a slight majority opposing the provision of government funds for that purpose. Furthermore, many voters are against deploying U.S. troops to assist in military efforts for Israel; approximately half oppose such actions, and only about 20% express support for troop deployment.
As the U.S. continues to advocate for cease-fire negotiations, public opinion indicates a belief that the government is striving to do its part. About 50% of respondents feel the U.S. is doing as much as it can in pushing for cease-fire between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah, while 30% think the U.S. could be doing more, and around 20% believe it should do less. Republicans are more inclined than Democrats to favor reduced U.S. involvement in cease-fire negotiations, with 30% of Republicans advocating for less action compared to just 10% of Democrats. Conversely, a greater percentage of Democrats (60%) believe the U.S. is appropriately engaged, as opposed to 40% of Republicans, although voters across all party lines are similarly inclined to believe more could be achieved.
The survey, conducted between October 11-14, 2024, involved 1,072 participants selected from NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel, a sample designed to be reflective of the U.S. population. The margin for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.