TOKYO — Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is preparing for a significant challenge in the upcoming elections, facing a potential decrease in his conservative party’s majority in the lower house of parliament. This situation arises from growing public frustration related to financial scandals within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and dissatisfaction due to a stagnant economy. The election results could undermine Ishiba’s authority, potentially leading to a period of political instability, although many believe a full governmental shift is unlikely.
Ishiba ascended to the role of Prime Minister on October 1, stepping in after Fumio Kishida’s resignation, which came in the wake of ongoing public unrest concerning alleged slush fund activities linked to LDP members. Eager to consolidate his support, Ishiba promptly called for a snap election, hoping to leverage his reputation as a reformist to fortify his party’s standing.
Voting commenced on Sunday morning across Japan, with an unprecedented 1,344 candidates on the ballot, including a historic number of 314 women. Polling stations closed at 8 p.m., and results are anticipated to be available shortly thereafter.
Ishiba aims to retain 233 seats in a ruling coalition with the Buddhist-backed Komeito, securing a majority within the lower house, which consists of 465 members and holds more power than its counterpart in Japan’s bicameral legislature.
During his final campaign addresses in Tokyo on Saturday, Ishiba expressed remorse for the financial mismanagement scandal affecting his party, vowing to transform the LDP into a more equitable and accountable entity. He emphasized that only the LDP coalition possesses the requisite experience to govern Japan competently and responsibly.
Despite being a once-celebrated figure known for his candid views on party policies, Ishiba’s approval ratings have diminished considerably since taking office.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the leading opposition faction, is headed by centrist Yoshihiko Noda, a former prime minister during the LDP’s period of weakened control from 2009 to 2012. Noda’s party is projected to make considerable advancements, with him suggesting that this election represents a unique opportunity for governmental change, a significant political reform. However, the party has encountered challenges in fostering alliances with other opposition groups.
Political analysts indicate that Ishiba may struggle to meet his seat retention goals, while still being expected to lead as the primary party in Japan’s legislative body, given voter hesitance toward the opposition’s perceived inexperience and inadequacies.
Should his party lose the majority, it would likely hinder Ishiba’s capability to implement policies and may incite pressure for him to step down prior to next summer’s upper house elections, according to experts.
“The public’s growing dissatisfaction regarding the slush fund issue is substantial, and it won’t dissipate easily,” stated Izuru Makihara, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo. He noted a rising demand for fairness and increased rejection of political privileges, suggesting that Ishiba must introduce bold reforms to regain public confidence.
Ishiba has promised to revitalize rural economies, tackle Japan’s declining birth rates, and enhance national defense. However, his Cabinet, characterized by a lack of diversity with only two women present, has been criticized for its connection to the discredited faction led by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Furthermore, Ishiba has distanced himself from previous support for progressive issues like dual surnames for married couples and same-sex marriage, appearing to placate the LDP’s more conservative constituents.
Political analyst Rintaro Nishimura suggests that Ishiba’s dwindling popularity can be attributed to a divergence between public expectations and the actual direction his administration has taken.
The ongoing elections pose a significant test for the LDP as it seeks to move beyond the legacy of Abe, whose extensive nearly eight-year administration focused primarily on security, trade, and industry, while frequently sidelining themes of equality and diversity, leading to perceptions of corruption.
Experts predict potential realignments among opposition parties grappling with whether to collaborate with one another or attempt to form a coalition with the ruling party.
Potential alliances for the LDP could include the Democratic Party of the People, a splinter group seeking lower taxes, and the conservative Japan Innovation Party, although both parties are presently rebuffing any coalition discussions with the LDP.
The LDP’s disbandment of many factions that previously facilitated a united front for electioneering and policy pushing has led to a less cohesive party that might face an era of frequently changing prime ministers. Nonetheless, Ishiba is expected to remain in power at least until critical budget plans are ratified by the ruling bloc at the end of December.