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AP Insights: Anticipations for New Jersey on Election Day

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AP Insights: Anticipations for New Jersey on Election Day


WASHINGTON — Following an intense primary season, voters in New Jersey are gearing up for the general election scheduled for November 5, where several federal positions will be contested across the state.

In the presidential race, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris will face off against former Republican President Donald Trump, along with seven third-party candidates for New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes, as they compete to succeed the outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden.

Historically, New Jersey has leaned Democratic in presidential elections since 1992. Biden secured 57% of the state’s votes in the 2020 election, while Hillary Clinton garnered 55% in 2016. Interestingly, this election cycle has seen more activity than usual following the primaries, largely due to Trump. He hosted a rally in Wildwood in May while attending court in New York. In August, just before the Democratic National Convention, Trump held a press conference at his golf club in Bedminster.

As for the U.S. Senate race, Democratic U.S. Representative Andy Kim and Republican Curtis Bashaw are contending for the seat recently vacated by former Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who stepped down after being convicted on bribery charges. Kim, who has served three terms representing the 3rd District, will face Bashaw, a first-time candidate and hotel developer from southern New Jersey. Additionally, four independent candidates will be on the ballot.

Democrats have maintained an approximate 12-point advantage in New Jersey Senate elections since the turn of the century. The last two Republicans to serve in the Senate were appointed and only held their seats for short periods. The last elected Republican senator from New Jersey resigned from office in 1979.

In the U.S. House races, attention is particularly focused on the 7th District seat, which includes Trump’s Bedminster golf club. Republican Tom Kean Jr. aims for a second term against Democrat Sue Altman, a former leader of the state’s progressive Working Families Alliance. Kean comes from a prominent political family as the son, grandson, and great-grandson of former New Jersey officials. In the 8th District, Democrat Rob Menendez, son of the recently resigned senator, is also seeking re-election, competing against Republican Anthony Valdes.

New Jersey recently introduced early in-person voting, and in the previous year, early and mail-in ballots made up 30% of the overall votes. The initial vote counts on election night are expected to include these early ballots. Votes that remain uncounted on election night could vary, typically averaging around 5-6%, with higher numbers reported in Cumberland and Bergen counties.

The northern urban area of New Jersey is predominantly Democratic, while the Northwest region is recognized for its Republican majority.

Here is an overview of the upcoming 2024 election in New Jersey:

**Election Day:** November 5.

**Poll Closing Time:** 8 p.m. ET.

**Electoral Votes:** 14 awarded to the statewide winner.

**Key Races and Candidates:**

– **President:** Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) and several others.

– **U.S. Senate:** Kim (D) vs. Bashaw (R) among four additional candidates.

**Other Significant Races:** U.S. House.

**Historical Presidential Results:**

– **2020:** Biden (D) received 57%, Trump (R) 41%.

**Voter Registration and Turnout:**

– Registered Voters: 6,659,963 (as of October 1, 2024). Approximately 38% are Democrats, 24% are Republicans, while 37% are unaffiliated.

– Voter Turnout in the 2020 Presidential Election: 70% of registered voters.

**Voting Prior to Election Day:**

– Votes Cast Before Election Day in 2020: Approximately 93% of the total.

– Votes Cast Before Election Day in 2022: About 30% of the total.

– Votes Cast Before Election Day in 2024: To be determined based on tracking data.

**Vote Counting Timeline:**

– First Votes Reported, November 3, 2020: 8:18 p.m. ET.

– By midnight ET: Around 32% of the total votes cast were reported.

This election cycle in New Jersey promises to be both exciting and pivotal, with a variety of competitive races likely to capture the attention of voters and political analysts alike.