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Election Day Expectations in Idaho: Insights from AP Decision Analysis

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In the upcoming general election on November 5, Idaho will feature nine candidates on its ballot, including Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. The remaining candidates will include several independents and representatives from minor political parties as they vie for the state’s four electoral votes in the contest to succeed Democratic President Joe Biden.

Additionally, voters in Idaho will have the opportunity to weigh in on a couple of ballot measures. One measure aims to prevent noncitizens from participating in elections, while the other proposes to implement ranked-choice voting in statewide elections.

Historically, Idaho has leaned towards Republican candidates, supporting them in the last 14 presidential elections dating back to 1968. Many counties have already reported on absentee ballots, with Ada County, which houses around 27% of Idaho’s population, serving as the largest.

Votes cast by mail must be returned by the day of the election, and roughly half of the counties in Idaho report their results in one comprehensive update. On the night of election coverage, updates will continue until a winner is declared, which will occur once it has been confirmed that trailing candidates have no viable chance of closing the gap. If any race is still undetermined, the media will provide continuous updates on significant events, including any candidate concessions or victory announcements, clearly stating when a winner has not yet been established.

For the 2024 election in Idaho, here are key details: The election date is set for November 5, and polls will close at 11 p.m. ET. The presidential electoral votes, totaling four, will go to the statewide winner. Key contenders in the presidential race include Harris (D), Trump (R), Chase Oliver (Libertarian), Jill Stein (Green), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent), along with four other candidates.

Aside from the presidential race, voters will also consider two ballot measures: Proposition 1, which discusses a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election, and Constitutional Amendment HJR 5, mandating citizenship for voting. Other important races include elections for the U.S. House, state Senate, and state House.

Looking back at previous presidential elections, in 2020, Trump secured 64% of the votes, while Biden garnered 33%, with results being officially called on November 3, 2020, at 11 p.m. ET. As of October 1, 2024, Idaho has 1,042,931 registered voters, comprising approximately 13% Democrats, 59% Republicans, and 27% unaffiliated voters. Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election was notably high, reaching 79% of registered voters.

In terms of pre-election voting, around 56% of votes were cast before Election Day in 2020, whereas approximately 32% did so in 2022. The timeline for vote counting is significant, with the first votes being reported at 11:04 p.m. ET on November 3, 2020. By midnight ET of that day, around 50% of total votes cast had been reported.