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AP Insights: Anticipations for Oregon’s Election Day

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AP Insights: Anticipations for Oregon’s Election Day

In Oregon, attention is set to be focused on the upcoming presidential election and the contest for control of the tightly contested U.S. House on election night scheduled for Nov. 5. Voters will also deliberate on a significant ballot measure aimed at instituting ranked-choice voting in the state.

At the forefront of the ballot, the race features Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris competing against former Republican President Donald Trump for Oregon’s eight electoral votes. Oregon is no stranger to narrow margins; it had one of the closest outcomes in the 2000 presidential election, although it was largely eclipsed by the more publicized Florida recount. However, in subsequent elections, the state’s preferences have strongly leaned toward Democratic candidates, leading to neither major party’s nominee visiting the state since their nominations.

In the U.S. House, Republican incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer is facing a challenging reelection campaign for a second term in a district where President Joe Biden outperformed Trump by nearly 10 percentage points in the 2020 election. The Democratic challenger is Janelle Bynum, currently serving as a state representative, while three other independent or third-party candidates will also appear on the ballot. Chavez-DeRemer initially won her seat in 2022 with a narrow 51%-49% margin.

Republicans are aiming to unseat two first-term Democratic incumbents in districts located in the Salem and Eugene regions. Reps. Val Hoyle and Andrea Salinas secured their positions in 2022 with slightly over 50% of the vote, with Hoyle enjoying an 8-point advantage over her Republican challenger. Both districts, the 4th and 6th, were carried by Biden, who received 55% of the vote in those areas.

Another significant decision for voters includes Measure 117, which seeks to implement ranked-choice voting in Oregon. The passage of this measure would denote a considerable transformation in the state’s electoral process, one of five statewide initiatives that will be on the ballot for consideration.

In addition to these major elections, residents will also be voting for the Portland mayor as well as a new City Council comprising twelve members.

Oregon typically releases its first reports focusing on ballots cast prior to Election Day, as mail-in voting is the primary method used in the state. Importantly, ballots that are postmarked by Election Day will still count if they arrive within seven days afterward. This policy means initial results can fluctuate as later votes are tallied. Key counties to observe during this election include Clackamas and Deschutes, both of which have a history of being crucial in closely contested races. Ballots for this election were dispatched starting on Oct. 16.

Here’s an overview of what to anticipate in the 2024 election in Oregon:

– **Election Day**: Nov. 5.
– **Poll Closing Time**: 11 p.m. ET.
– **Presidential Electoral Votes**: 8 awarded to the statewide winner.
– **Key Races and Candidates**: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We the People) vs. Cornel West (Progressive) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution) vs. Jill Stein (Green). 5th Congressional District: Chavez-DeRemer (R) vs. Janelle Bynum (D) and three additional candidates. Ballot Measures: Measure 117 (establish ranked-choice voting).
– **Other Races of Interest**: U.S. House, state Senate, state House, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, Portland mayor, and other ballot measures.

**Historical Presidential Results**: In 2020, Biden (D) achieved 56%, while Trump (R) garnered 40%. The Associated Press race call was made on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, at 11 p.m. ET.

**Voter Registration and Turnout**: Currently, registered voters total 3,051,923 (as of Oct. 2, 2024), consisting of approximately 33% Democrats, 24% Republicans, and 36% nonaffiliated voters. Voter turnout during the 2020 presidential election reached 80% of registered voters.

**Pre-Election Day Voting**: In both 2020 and 2022, almost all votes were cast by mail prior to Election Day. For 2024, detailed tracking of early voting activities can be accessed through voter information resources.

**Duration of Vote-Counting**: The first votes from the 2020 election were reported by 11 p.m. ET on Nov. 3. By midnight ET, approximately 80% of the total cast votes were reported.