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AP Analysis: Anticipations for Utah’s Election Day Activities

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Utah residents are preparing to participate in the general election on November 5, where they will have the opportunity to vote for a wide array of positions at both federal and state levels, including the presidency, congressional seats, the governorship, and state legislative roles.

In the presidential race, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, former Republican President Donald Trump, and a handful of third-party contenders are vying for Utah’s six electoral votes as they seek to succeed the outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden. Notably, it has been six decades since a Democrat last won the state in a presidential election.

On the Senate front, GOP Congressman John Curtis, Democrat Caroline Gleich, and independent Carlton Bowen are competing to replace Republican U.S. Senator Mitt Romney, who opted not to run for a second term. In the race for governor, Republican Spencer Cox aims to maintain his position against Democrat Brian King and a group of other candidates. Cox previously garnered 64% of the vote in the 2020 elections.

Utah’s four congressional districts, which are currently all held by Republicans, are also in play. This includes the 3rd District seat that Curtis is vacating to pursue a Senate seat.

Two proposed constitutional amendments will be on the ballot, but any votes cast regarding these measures are not expected to be counted due to state courts invalidating them. Nevertheless, they remain for procedural purposes related to printing and electoral deadlines. One amendment aimed to grant lawmakers authority to amend citizen-initiated proposals, while the other sought to refine the allocation of state income tax revenue.

The polls in Utah will close at 10 p.m. ET. The state’s elections are primarily conducted through mail-in voting, with all registered voters receiving absentee ballots which can be returned via drop boxes or through the mail. To be counted, mailed votes must be postmarked by November 4, the day prior to Election Day. Utah also starts counting advance ballots before Election Day, and in the previous election in 2022, votes counted after Election Day leaned Democratic by a 4-point margin—a noticeable change compared to earlier elections where late ballots typically benefitted Republican candidates.

The state’s mandatory recount rule activates if the vote margin between candidates is 0.25% or less of the total votes recorded. Traditionally Republican, Utah last backed a Democrat for president when Lyndon Johnson won in 1964.

There are indications that the state’s demographic changes may impact future elections. As the proportion of residents identifying as Mormon has diminished, Utah’s overall diversity has increased, leading to some shifts in voter attitudes. Despite Trump’s significant victories in 2016 and 2020 by 18 and 20 percentage points respectively, these margins were notably lower than those achieved by previous Republican candidates who often won by nearly 30 to 50-point spreads during the 2000-2012 period.

As for the election’s logistics, the first votes reported in the 2020 presidential race came in at 10:01 PM ET, with about 63% of the votes logged by midnight. The state has registered 2,025,754 voters as of October 21, 2024. The breakdown indicates approximately 14% are Democrats, 50% are Republicans, and 29% are counted as unaffiliated. Voter turnout during the 2020 election reached an impressive 80% of registered voters.

As Utah approaches the upcoming election, many eyes will be on the results, especially in major counties such as Davis, Salt Lake, and Utah, where changes in the voting landscape could significantly influence the overall outcome.