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AP Insights: Anticipations for Alabama’s Election Day

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AP Insights: Anticipations for Alabama’s Election Day

Washington – On November 5, voters in Alabama will head to the polls with a newly reconfigured congressional district and a strong tradition of Republican leadership at stake.

Since the presidency of Jimmy Carter in 1976, Alabama has not supported a Democratic candidate, solidifying its status as a typically red state. Currently, both U.S. senators and six of the state’s seven representatives in the House are Republicans, alongside a GOP governor. Former President Donald Trump notably secured a 28-point victory in Alabama during the 2016 election and a 26-point margin in the 2020 election.

The presidential ballot will also feature Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, along with three independent candidates. Alabama possesses a total of nine electoral votes in the electoral college.

This year, Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District has been re-drawn following a Supreme Court ruling that found the state’s previous mapping improperly minimized the voting power of Black citizens. The district now covers a portion of the lower third of Alabama, incorporating the key cities of Mobile and Montgomery. The race for the open seat will see Democrat Shomari Figures going against Republican Caroleene Dobson. The district’s voting-age population is now 49% Black, an increase from just 30% when it was a firmly Republican district.

Current representative Barry Moore chose to contest in the adjacent 1st District this election cycle, securing a primary victory against incumbent Jerry Carl. Meanwhile, the other five incumbents will be seeking re-election in their respective districts.

This election year does not feature either senator or the governor on the ballot, and there is a singular ballot measure affecting only Franklin County.

Alabama does not provide early in-person voting and remains one of the few states to require an excuse for voting by mail, contributing to a trend where almost all voters go to the polls on Election Day. In recent elections, over 80% of Alabama’s votes have been reported between the closing of polls and midnight on Election Day.

Here’s a preview of the electoral landscape for Alabama in the upcoming 2024 election:

**Election Day:** November 5.
**Poll Closing Time:** 8 p.m. ET (some parts of counties on Eastern Time may close at 7 p.m. ET).
**Presidential Electoral Votes:** 9 allocated to the overall winner statewide.
**Key Race and Candidates:** President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent) vs. Jill Stein (Independent) vs. Chase Oliver (Independent).
**Other Notable Races:** U.S. House, State Supreme Court, Civil Appeals, Criminal Appeals, Public Service Commission, State Board of Education, and one ballot measure.
**Recent Presidential Outcomes:** In the 2020 election, Trump earned 62% of the votes compared to Biden’s 37%, with the results announced on the evening of Tuesday, November 3, 2020, at 8 p.m. ET.

**Voter Registration and Turnout:** Alabama had 3,776,498 registered voters as of September 2024, with a turnout rate of 62% in the 2020 presidential election.
**Pre-Election Day Voting:** In 2020, approximately 13% of ballots were cast before Election Day, while in 2022 this figure dropped sharply to 3%. Current figures for the 2024 pre-election day voting can be tracked via the highlighted indicators.

**Vote-Counting Timeline:** The first votes reported in the 2020 election were at 8:11 p.m. ET. By midnight ET of the same evening, around 84% of the total votes cast had been accounted for.

Alabama’s electoral landscape remains a key focus as the voting approaches, especially amid ongoing discussions about electoral integrity and democracy in the broader context of American elections.