Atlanta (4-3) takes on Tampa Bay (4-3) this Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT, with the matchup featured on FOX. The betting odds from BetMGM favor the Falcons by 2 1/2 points. Over the years, this intense rivalry has resulted in a balanced series record, currently tied at 31 wins each. Against the spread, the Falcons stand at 3-4 while the Buccaneers are slightly better at 4-3. The last encounter ended in the Falcons’ favor as they defeated the Buccaneers 36-30 in overtime on October 3, 2024.
Both teams faced losses last week; the Falcons were bested by the Seahawks 34-14, while the Buccaneers fell to the Ravens, 41-31. Currently, Atlanta’s offense ranks 7th overall, with specifics that see them at 16th in rushing and 5th in passing, though they are 15th in scoring. Defensively, they hold a 17th ranking overall, 24th against the rush, 13th against the pass, and 22nd in points allowed. The Buccaneers’ offense is performing better overall, ranking 5th, and showing strength in both the rushing (8th) and passing (7th) categories, but they excel in scoring, standing at 4th. Defensively, however, they are struggling, ranked 31st overall, and are 19th against runs, 29th against the pass, and 28th in scoring defense. The turnover differential sees the Falcons in the negative at minus 3, while the Buccaneers are in the positive at plus 1.
For the Falcons, quarterback Kirk Cousins is a player to keep an eye on. He recently posted record numbers against the Buccaneers, throwing for 509 yards and four touchdowns in that last meeting. However, his subsequent games have seen a downturn, with only 457 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, a couple of interceptions, and a lost fumble returned for a score. Cousins will be aiming to get back to his previous form in Tampa Bay.
On the Buccaneers’ side, quarterback Baker Mayfield is having a standout season, currently holding the fifth-best passer rating in the NFL at 107.1. He is second in passing yards, with 1,859, and leads in touchdown throws with 18 this season. Since the start of 2023, only Jordan Love has thrown more touchdown passes than Mayfield. However, he faces a challenge as he enters this game without his top receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both sidelined with injuries.
A critical matchup to watch will be Tampa Bay’s revitalized rushing attack against an Atlanta defense that has shown vulnerability against the run, currently ranked 19th. With key receivers out, Mayfield is likely to lean on running backs like Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker to bolster both ground and aerial plays. Since Week 4, only the Ravens and Commanders have averaged more rushing yards per game than Tampa Bay, who is averaging 168.3 yards. Notably, they are the only team with three running backs surpassing 250 total yards from scrimmage this season.
In terms of injuries, the Falcons have some positive reports; left guard Matthew Bergeron has returned to practice fully after missing last week with a neck injury, and linebacker Troy Anderson is also back after missing three games due to a knee concern. Safety Justin Simmons and center Ryan Neuzil are managing ongoing injuries but are expected to see action. Conversely, the Buccaneers have suffered significant losses, with Godwin out for the season and Evans expected to miss at least three weeks following last week’s game against the Ravens. Rookie safety Tykee Smith is also in concussion protocol after an early exit in that match.
Historically, Falcons head coach Raheem Morris will be going up against the team he previously led from 2009 to 2011, where he amassed a 17-31 record. Atlanta has fared better recently, winning three of the last four matchups after a five-game winning streak by Tampa Bay. Notably, the Falcons have won eight of the last 14 encounters in Tampa since 2010.
Additional stats show that three of Atlanta’s four wins have come via last-minute scores in either regulation or overtime. Running back Bijan Robinson ranks fifth in total yards this season with 684, and tight end Kyle Pitts is distinguishing himself as the only one in the league with multiple receptions over 50 yards. Wide receiver Drake London has also been effective against the Buccaneers, recording 38 catches for 535 yards in just five games. Defensively, the Falcons are struggling to secure sacks, sitting at the bottom of the league charts with only six. In contrast, the Buccaneers have amassed 17 sacks after a slow start. Mayfield will aim to continue reducing turnovers, despite facing pressures in the last two games which saw him throw five interceptions. Overall, Tampa Bay has scored 30 points or more in five games this season, despite having 31st in total defense and allowing 386 yards per game. Interestingly, Mayfield holds a strong record against the Falcons, with nine touchdown passes and only one interception in four matchups.
From a fantasy perspective, Drake London, who has achieved a career-high with five touchdown catches, is currently on a scoring streak, marking Atlanta’s longest since tight end Hayden Hurst’s streak in 2020.