SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Since U.S. Representative Brandon Williams was narrowly elected in central New York two years ago, Democratic leaders have worked hard to position him as a vulnerable Republican in Congress. To do this, they revised the boundaries of his district, removing rural areas that typically leaned towards Donald Trump and incorporating the college town of Cortland. This resulted in a newly drawn district where voters favored Joe Biden by an 11-point margin in the 2020 presidential election.
With these adjustments, the Syracuse area seat is now seen as a crucial target for Democrats who aim to gain control of the House in the upcoming November elections. Although much national attention has been directed at districts nearer to New York City, the Democratic Party has allocated substantial resources to this central New York contest, recognizing it as one of their greatest opportunities this fall.
John Mannion, the Democratic state senator challenging Williams, acknowledges that victory is no certainty. He points out that Syracuse has been represented by Republicans in Congress for nearly ten years, and the county’s executive is also a Republican. Additionally, voters in this district had previously supported a Republican candidate for governor just two years prior.
“Our area has a conservative leaning, which is often reflected in our voting patterns. Many independent voters can lean conservative,” Mannion mentioned in an interview, suggesting that the district is more centrist in nature.
Mannion, a former educator and moderate two-term state senator, is viewed as a candidate who can resonate well with swing voters. He enjoys considerable backing from labor unions, opposes restrictions on abortion, and has adopted a middle-ground stance regarding reforms to the state’s bail laws.
Williams, however, has attempted to portray Mannion as a liberal attempting to disguise himself as a centrist candidate. “He possesses all the credentials of the far left, but he’s going to feign being a Republican for a short while, hoping that the Democrat base either excuses him or overlooks it,” Williams stated.
A Texas native, Williams previously served as a submarine officer in the U.S. Navy, later becoming a tech entrepreneur before venturing into a truffle farm in central New York. Throughout the campaign, he has aimed to recapture the momentum that contributed to his prior narrow victory in 2022.
In that election, Republican candidates in New York benefitted from a public backlash against modifications to the state’s bail laws, which had limited the requirement for many accused of nonviolent offenses to pay bail for release while awaiting trial. Although Mannion did not hold office when those changes were enacted, he supported subsequent legislation allowing judges more discretion on whether to keep individuals incarcerated before trial—an adjustment that faced opposition from progressives but was deemed essential by moderates.
As the contest between Mannion and Williams has progressed, it has shifted from a relatively amicable start to a fiercely contentious conclusion. A Republican super PAC has initiated advertisements directed at allegations stemming from an anonymous complaint that surfaced online this summer, claiming Mannion verbally abused his Senate staff. Mannion’s campaign dismisses these claims as a politically motivated attack, asserting that an independent investigation had exonerated him from any wrongdoing. Efforts to reach the authors of the anonymous complaint for comments have gone unanswered.
Mannion’s campaign has also released an ad featuring video footage of Williams confronting a former staffer at a holiday gathering last year. This clip circulated widely in political circles at the time, showing Williams angrily pointing at the individual while saying, “I’ll end every relationship you have.” Williams later explained that his anger stemmed from the former aide threatening to disclose that his adult daughter appeared on a site featuring adult content.
Democrats might feel encouraged by the degree to which the district repudiated Trump. In 2020, Biden secured a victory over Trump by approximately 7 points in a previous configuration of the district. Now, under the adjusted boundaries, that margin would potentially increase to double digits.
In 2022, lacking Trump’s presence on the ballot, Williams narrowly triumphed over Democrat Francis Conole, a member of the U.S. Navy Reserve, by a margin of about 2,600 votes. Yet, Republicans also highlight strong past performance in the district, pointing out that it endorsed Republican Lee Zeldin when he ran for governor of New York in 2022.
“Every election here can go either way,” declared Williams.
Political science professor Grant Reeher at Syracuse University described the district as “fundamentally moderate,” despite its appearance as leaning toward Democrats on paper. “It seems like the candidates are more generic, one leaning conservative and the other more mainstream, and this district appears best suited for candidates who are centrist from either party,” Reeher said.
At a campaign event in Syracuse for Mannion, community organizer Rahzie Seals, 41, expressed uncertainty regarding their voting intentions this year but acknowledged a clear sentiment in the district: “A lot of people are eager to vote against Trump,” Seals remarked.