Northwestern will face off against Iowa on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, in a matchup featured on the Big Ten Network. The Hawkeyes are favored to win by 14 points. Historically, Iowa holds a significant edge in the series, leading with a record of 54 wins to 28 losses and 3 ties.
This matchup carries important implications for both teams. Iowa has been struggling with its passing game and continues to rely primarily on its run offense, showing some improvement thanks to running back Kaleb Johnson. However, Iowa’s famous defensive strength has not been as dominant compared to last season; in both 2022 and 2023, they did not allow any opponent to reach 400 total yards, but they have conceded that much in two of their last three contests. Northwestern, on the other hand, aims to boost its offensive capabilities after a disappointing 23-3 defeat against Wisconsin, where it only managed to accumulate 209 total yards, a stark contrast to their strong performance against Maryland just two weeks prior.
A critical element of the game will be the Iowa rushing attack versus the Northwestern run defense. Both Iowa and Michigan are the only teams in the Big Ten that have yet to cross the threshold of 1,000 passing yards this season. It is anticipated that Iowa will focus on running the ball with Johnson, who averages an impressive 7.8 yards per carry and leads the conference with 147.9 yards per game. Northwestern’s defense, however, has proven resilient against the run, uniquely standing out in the conference by not allowing any rush of more than 30 yards, ranking among the few teams nationally with such a statistic.
Players to keep an eye on include Northwestern’s Joseph Himon II, a transfer from UCLA, who currently leads the Big Ten in kick returns with an average of 27.6 yards per return. Notably, he executed a remarkable 96-yard return against Washington but unfortunately did not convert it into points for his team. For Iowa, sixth-year linebacker Nick Jackson is making his mark in his second year with the team, having recorded 11 tackles in back-to-back games, alongside a sack against Michigan State in the previous matchup.
In terms of statistics, Iowa’s defensive back Sebastian Castro, who sat out last week due to an ankle injury, is anticipated to return to action. The Hawkeyes have recorded 44 pass plays extending at least 10 yards this season, while Northwestern has executed 40; Michigan trails with only 34 such plays. Northwestern’s struggles extend to third-down conversions, where they sit last in the Big Ten and ranked 132nd nationally, converting at just 26.7%. Additionally, Aaron Graves leads Iowa’s defense with five sacks over the season, a notable uptick from his previous 27 games where he notched only 4.5 sacks. Interestingly, Iowa leads the nation with just 19 penalties committed, and their 185 penalty yards rank second in the nation, following Iowa State’s 176 yards.