The world is on track to experience a warming of 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to current temperatures, according to a United Nations report released Thursday. However, if countries fulfill their promises to combat climate change, this increase could be reduced by half a degree. Nonetheless, this reduction is still insufficient to mitigate the most severe effects of climate change, including more extreme heat waves, wildfires, storms, and droughts.

The United Nations Environment Programme’s annual Emissions Gap Report indicates that nearly all scenarios, except for the most optimistic one—which involves substantial reductions in fossil fuel use—have a “virtually zero” chance of keeping warming within the internationally agreed limit. This target, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, aims to restrict temperature rise to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels. The report reveals that since the mid-1800s, global temperatures have already increased by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), a revision from earlier estimates due to the record heat recorded last year.

Currently, the world is projected to reach an increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) relative to pre-industrial levels. However, if countries adhere to their commitments as outlined in their UN-submitted targets, the warming could potentially be limited to 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit). In an ultra-stringent scenario, where nations achieve net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the likelihood of maintaining a temperature increase at or below the 1.5 degrees goal is about 23%. Nevertheless, even this optimistic outlook suggests that warming is more likely to reach 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Report editor Anne Olhoff, an economist and chief climate advisor at the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre, emphasized the urgency for immediate action before 2030 to influence temperature outcomes significantly. She stated, “It is now or never really if we want to keep 1.5 alive.” Similarly, UNEP Director Inger Andersen warned that without rapid and unprecedented emission reductions, the 1.5-degree goal could soon be unattainable, positioning the broader target of well below 2 degrees Celsius in jeopardy.

Olhoff indicated that we may lose the chance to meet the 1.5-degree target by 2029 if current trends continue. Neil Grant from Climate Analytics pointed out that a slow approach to climate change progress equates to defeat, raising concerns over a potentially lost decade in climate action.

A significant issue is the discrepancy between nations’ promised actions as part of the Paris Agreement and their actual policies. The report highlights that the world’s 20 wealthiest countries, which contribute 77% of global carbon emissions, have largely failed to meet their pledges, with only 11 nations achieving their targets.

The findings indicate that while the emission cuts needed to adhere to the 1.5-degree goal are technically and economically feasible, they are not being implemented effectively. Climate scientist Bill Hare expressed frustration, stating that governments are “sleepwalking towards climate chaos.” Similarly, Johan Rockstrom of the Potsdam Institute noted his fears were confirmed, stating that the world is indeed heading for a 3.1-degree path, which could lead to catastrophic consequences.

Both the projected 3.1-degree and 2.6-degree scenarios are slightly warmer than the previous year’s UN report, though experts deem this variation to fall within a margin of uncertainty. The urgency is amplified with one less year available to cut emissions, reflecting a grave understanding of potential future disasters, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which indicate that 3 degrees of warming could instigate severe and irreversible damages.

The report addresses the “emissions gap,” outlining how much greenhouse gases—principally carbon dioxide and methane—can still be emitted to maintain temperature rises within 1.5, 1.8, and 2 degrees Celsius limits. It illustrates that to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, a 42% reduction in emissions is necessary, while a 28% cut is required to stay within 2 degrees.

In 2023, the world emitted approximately 57.1 billion metric tons (62.9 billion U.S. tons) of greenhouse gases, which averages to a staggering 1,810 metric tons (1,995 U.S. tons) of emissions each second. As United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked, “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.” He cautioned against further delays, indicating that time is running out for effective climate action.