As Montanans prepare to cast their votes on November 5, they will participate in a significant U.S. Senate election that could influence which party holds sway in the closely divided chamber in the forthcoming Congress. Voters will also make decisions on a pivotal abortion-related ballot measure and engage in other races, including for state governor and the presidential contest.
Currently, the Democratic Party maintains a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate. However, with a Republican victory almost guaranteed in the seat of the retiring former Democratic Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia, a win in Montana would further challenge Democratic efforts to retain control, regardless of the presidential outcome.
Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term and faces a formidable challenge from Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL. Tester, one of only two Senate Democrats facing reelection in a state that voted heavily for Trump in 2020, has been a frequent target for Republican campaigns. In his previous three elections, he garnered between 49% and 50% of the votes.
As of early October, Tester has invested a remarkable $71 million into his campaign compared to Sheehy’s $11 million, which includes a loan of $2.5 million from Sheehy himself. Additional financial support from outside organizations has flooded into the race, increasing the stakes.
Montana is among ten states with a ballot measure related to abortion on the upcoming ballot. The proposal, called “Constitutional Initiative No. 128,” aims to secure a constitutional right to abortion prior to fetal viability within the state.
The presidential race appears less competitive for Montanans, with the last Democratic candidate to win the state being Bill Clinton in 1992, although Barack Obama came close in 2008. Trump dominated Montana in both 2016 and 2020, securing 57% of the vote, while the Democratic candidates have not actively campaigned in the state this election cycle. Tester notably did not attend the Democratic National Convention in August and has refrained from endorsing Kamala Harris, prompting Sheehy to attempt to associate Tester with the Democratic ticket.
In the governor’s race, the current Republican incumbent, Greg Gianforte, will face off against Democrat Ryan Busse, adding another layer of interest to this election cycle.
Key details for Montana voters regarding the upcoming election include:
– **Election Day:** November 5
– **Poll Closing Time:** 10 p.m. ET
– **Presidential Electoral Votes:** 4 allocated to the statewide victor
**Key Races and Candidates:**
– **President:** Harris (D), Trump (R), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We the People), Chase Oliver (Libertarian), Jill Stein (Green).
– **U.S. Senate:** Tester (D), Sheehy (R), and two others.
– **Governor:** Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Ryan Busse (D) and one other.
– **Ballot Measures:** Constitutional Amendment 126 (top four primary), 127 (majority vote required), 128 (right to abortion).
Additional races worthy of attention include U.S. House, Attorney General, Auditor, Secretary of State, and several state-level positions.
Although Montana does not primarily conduct elections via mail, a considerable portion of voters choose this method. In the 2018 midterm elections, approximately 75% of ballots were cast by mail, which increased to 98% during the 2020 general election amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
State laws permit election officials to begin processing mail ballots up to three days prior to Election Day, with machine counting commencing the day before. In the 2020 Senate race, a substantial portion of the votes was tallied by the early hours of the next day.
Republicans generally perform well in populous areas like Yellowstone and Flathead counties and dominate many smaller, rural counties. Conversely, Democrats often manage to retain support in at least six counties, ranging from larger locales like Missoula to smaller areas like Deer Lodge, even when they lose statewide by considerable margins.
Analyses of previous outcomes suggest that results from Lewis & Clark County and Cascade County will be particularly telling on election night. Both have historically yielded favorable results for Democratic candidates. In a close race, a drop below 60% support in these areas could signal trouble for Tester.
Election projections will not be made until a clear winner is determined, and automatic recounts will occur if votes tie. Candidates may request recounts if margins are particularly close, but declarations of victory may be made if leads appear insurmountable.
With voter registration soaring to 782,176 as of mid-October 2024 and significant turnout anticipated, the electoral landscape in Montana stands poised for an impactful election that could alter the course of political control in Congress.