KYIV, Ukraine — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s strategy to conclude the ongoing conflict with Russia, now approaching its third year, has elicited varied responses from Western partners.
Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” articulates several proposals, including a formal request for Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the use of Western-made long-range missiles aimed at Russian military installations. These measures have previously met with hesitance from Kyiv’s allies.
The United States plays a pivotal role in determining whether Zelenskyy can garner additional backing for initiatives he perceives as essential to bolster Ukraine’s stance in ongoing military operations and future peace discussions. However, experts suggest that the Biden administration is unlikely to make any commitments prior to the upcoming presidential election on Nov. 5, due to potential electoral consequences.
“Currently, it feels like they are waiting things out until the election,” remarked Phillips O’Brien, a strategic studies professor at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “So much of the decision-making will hinge on what happens in Washington.”
Experts view the proposed plan as a constructive move for Ukraine’s military aspirations, although it is considered ambitious given partners’ apprehensions about provoking a reaction from nuclear-capable Russia. Ukraine has previously achieved funding and support for military equipment that once appeared unattainable, including Patriot air defense systems and F-16 fighter jets.
According to analysts, introducing the plan now may prompt consideration from the future U.S. administration, although it remains uncertain how the incoming president might react.
Following his appeal to the European Council, Zelenskyy expressed optimism about receiving a response from the White House soon: “They will be here shortly with some form of feedback,” he stated.
Will this plan lead to success for Ukraine?
Zelenskyy presented his five-point plan amid ongoing challenges facing Ukrainian forces as they seek to impede Russian advances in the east. The plan includes three “secret annexes” disclosed to select leaders and makes a concerted effort to address concerns from allies regarding Ukraine’s military actions following a thwarted summer counteroffensive in 2023.
The primary objective, as described by Zelenskyy, is to reinforce Ukraine’s position and compel Russia to engage in negotiations with its partners.
While the plan may not produce immediate changes on the battlefield, it is expected to help Ukraine gradually deplete Russian forces and retain the necessary resources to continue fighting.
“I believe many were anticipating a more concrete operational approach to winning the war,” noted Justin Crump, a former British tank commander heading the strategic advisory outfit Sibylline. “But it’s unrealistic to expect a plan to divulge operational details that could advantage the enemy.”
Some Ukrainian analysts have critiqued the title of the plan, suggesting it was chosen primarily for its appeal. Yurii Bohdan, a Ukrainian analyst, believes the aim is to secure resources.
“Winning this type of attrition war necessitates an enhancement of Ukraine’s resilience while draining the enemy’s capacity,” explained Hlib Voloskyi from the Come Back Alive Centre of Initiatives. “The side that is most enduring prevails.”
What has been the allies’ reaction?
The U.S. response has been cautious and non-committal, despite unveiling a new $425 million security assistance package for Ukraine on the same day Zelenskyy shared his plan with lawmakers.
“It’s not my role to publicly assess his plan,” articulated Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. “We have been supporting him significantly with security assistance for over two and a half years, and that support will persist.”
Reactions from European countries have varied from outright rejection to enthusiastic support. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot indicated his commitment to working alongside Ukrainian officials to gather support from other nations for the proposal.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz maintained his position against supplying Taurus long-range missiles to Kyiv, affirming, “Our stance is explicit: We will support Ukraine as much as we can, but we also must ensure that NATO does not become involved in the conflict and exacerbate this war into a wider disaster.”
Conversely, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his amicable ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, referred to Zelenskyy’s plan as “more than frightening” in a Facebook post.
In a dismissive tone, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov characterized Zelenskyy’s plan as “ephemeral,” while Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova labeled it “a collection of disjointed slogans.”
What does this mean for Ukraine?
Zelenskyy has asserted that without a NATO membership proposal, Ukraine lacks assurance regarding its geopolitical future, which could otherwise become a negotiating tool for Russia.
Ukrainian officials emphasize that there are no viable alternatives to NATO which can offer security against potential aggression from Russia post-conflict.
Zelenskyy made ambiguous comments that hinted nuclear weapons might represent the only other security option, leading to speculation that he was referring to domestically developed nuclear arms. This sparked significant unease among Ukrainians, many of whom view NATO accession as increasingly unlikely.
Later, he clarified that his remarks were intended to underline Ukraine’s precarious position, referencing the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for assurances of protection from major nuclear states, including the UK, the U.S., and Russia.
Without robust backing from Western allies, Ukraine faces significant challenges in sustaining a protracted conflict against a well-supported Russia, which has backing from countries like North Korea, Iran, and China. Should Ukraine succumb, it would be compelled to negotiate on terms dictated by Russia.
“Securing external assistance is crucial for achieving victory in this war,” emphasized O’Brien.