MESA, Ariz. — In Arizona, the economy is reportedly thriving by various indicators, yet many voters in this key state feel differently as they approach the November 5 elections. Both the Democratic and Republican parties promise to uplift the middle class, but many voters believe these promises remain unfulfilled. This sentiment is exacerbated by recent increases in housing and living costs, which have created a stark contrast between economic data and personal experiences.
Key insights from interviews with residents and economists reveal a complex picture of Arizona’s economy as both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump present their visions ahead of the elections. In Maricopa County, which encompasses cities like Phoenix, Mesa, and Chandler, the job market is exceptionally strong, benefiting from an influx of new residents drawn by the region’s sunny climate and scenic landscape. Major tech players like TSMC and Google have also expanded operations in the area, contributing significantly to job growth. According to the Labor Department, Maricopa has demonstrated the most considerable job gain among major U.S. counties thus far in the year.
However, this boom in employment is accompanied by the alarming rise in home prices. Data from Zillow indicates that housing prices in Maricopa County have nearly doubled since 2016. Glenn Farley, director of policy and research at the Common Sense Institute Arizona, highlighted that many voters are comparing current home prices and mortgage rates to those from their parents’ era, leading them to feel hopeless about homeownership. Until the affordability crisis is addressed, dissatisfaction among voters is likely to persist.
Voter frustration is palpable, with many expressing doubts about whether Harris and Trump genuinely understand their struggles related to housing and essential goods. Harris has promised a $25,000 incentive for first-time homebuyers and tax benefits for new parents, while Trump’s campaign argues that mass deportations will ease housing demand and that increased tariffs will generate jobs. Nevertheless, voters remain skeptical as the financial strain from post-pandemic inflation lingers. Some have voiced that Trump is overly focused on cultural issues, while Harris emphasizes past comments made by her competitor.
Abel Ramirez, a 32-year-old resident of Apache Junction who is struggling to purchase a home for his expanding family, voiced his discontent: “When it comes to helping the citizen, helping a guy that’s got to go to work every day to provide for their family, I’m not hearing too much about it.” Despite backing Trump in 2020, he is contemplating abstaining from this election.
The attitudes of Arizonans reflect a broader ambivalence seen across America, where personal financial situations can contrast sharply with feelings about the national economy. A recent poll indicated that while around 60% of individuals view their personal economic condition positively, 70% believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction. John Akers, a 34-year-old resident, illustrated this duality and expressed concern for family and friends who continue to face economic hardships. Although he and his wife have prospered with their audio-visual business and benefitted from their Phoenix home’s increased value, their loved ones are struggling with the rising cost of living, prompting them to consider leaving the state.
Akers noted, “The political conversation is too often pitting the middle class against each other, and there’s been too little focus on the issues that matter, like inflation and housing costs.”
This voter discontentment is emblematic of the broader struggles faced in Maricopa County, which has seen dramatic growth over the past two presidential terms. Yet, that prosperity has come with challenges, disrupting confidence in the housing market. An oversupply of new residents has led to competition for limited housing, driving prices even higher and making higher mortgage rates seem more daunting. Homeowners feel trapped, unable to sell for fear of not affording new properties, while potential buyers feel they are shut out of the market entirely.
The Cowlings, a couple living in a 1,500-square-foot home they purchased for $225,000 at a 3.1% mortgage rate, are feeling the pinch of rising interest rates as they expand their family. With two new twins, they hope to move into a larger home, yet current market conditions make that dream seem unlikely. Trevor Cowling remarked on the current situation, saying that if he attempted to buy their house today, the monthly mortgage would exceed his income.
As Election Day approaches, the disconnect between economic growth and voter sentiment in Arizona becomes more evident, leaving both candidates with the challenge of addressing pressing economic concerns to win over constituents.