Iowa (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) will be facing Michigan State (3-3, 1-2) on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, broadcasted on NBC.
The latest betting odds favor Iowa by 6 points, and historically, Iowa has the edge in this matchup with a series record of 25-22-2.
Both teams find themselves in different trajectories this season. Iowa is part of a competitive group of six teams that are just one game behind in the Big Ten standings. Adding to their momentum is their recent impressive victory over Washington, a 40-16 rout, marking their highest scoring output against a conference opponent in three years.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is on a three-game losing streak and must find a way to improve their struggling offense, particularly with tough challenges ahead against ranked teams in the following weeks.
The key matchup to watch will be Iowa’s formidable rushing attack pitted against Michigan State’s defense against the run. The Hawkeyes have surpassed 200 rushing yards in five of their six games, led by standout Kaleb Johnson, who leads the Big Ten with an average of 156 yards per game. In contrast, the Spartans have struggled defensively, allowing nearly 400 rushing yards over their last two contests against Oregon and Ohio State. Iowa will likely focus on their ground game and will continue to exploit this aspect until Michigan State demonstrates the ability to counter it effectively.
Players to keep an eye on include Iowa cornerback Jermari Harris, who has the highest Pro Football Focus rating of any starting corner in the FBS. He has been targeted 27 times, allowing only 10 receptions, and has recorded three interceptions, one of which he returned for a touchdown, along with five pass breakups. In addition, his eight passes defended rank second in the conference.
For Michigan State, linebacker Jordan Turner, a transfer from Wisconsin, has emerged as one of their best defensive players. He leads his team with 37 tackles, including 6.5 tackles for a loss, and he shares the team lead with three sacks.
In terms of statistics and trends, Iowa has emerged victorious in the last two regular-season encounters with Michigan State, outscoring them by a significant margin of 75-23 during those games. The Hawkeyes maintain a perfect record of 29-0 since 2020 when scoring at least 21 points and are 75-3 when they hold an eight-point advantage at any time during a game since 2015. Michigan State’s punter Ryan Eckley boasts an impressive average of 48.0 yards per punt, ranking him second in the FBS. Interestingly, Iowa has achieved five 200-yard rushing games this season, their highest total since 2013. Additionally, the Hawkeyes have limited opponents to under 400 total yards in 33 of their last 34 games. On the other hand, Michigan State’s red zone defense ranks third in the Big Ten, with opponents scoring on 70% of their red zone opportunities (14-of-20). Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins, who leads the Big Ten in tackles, has consistently made a significant impact, recording at least 10 tackles in three games this season and has a total of 14 in his career, consistently leading or tying for team lead in each game this season.