The ongoing discussions surrounding a potential cease-fire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas face a significant obstacle: the need for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to sign any agreement. The two leaders, who are adversaries, are known for their tough negotiating stances and understand that the outcome of the talks will significantly impact their legacies, with potential life-or-death implications for Sinwar.

Netanyahu aims for total victory over Hamas and the release of all hostages held in Gaza, a goal that faces challenges given pressure from the hostages’ families, the Israeli public, and the United States to reach a deal. However, Netanyahu’s coalition includes far-right members advocating for the permanent reoccupation of Gaza, threatening his government. Delaying a deal could allow Netanyahu to enhance his political standing but also risks further casualties and international isolation.

Sinwar seeks to end the conflict on his terms, emphasizing guarantees from Israel to avoid resuming hostilities, withdraw from Gaza, release Palestinian prisoners, and enable the rebuilding of homes. His bargaining power relies on the remaining hostages and the need to salvage a sense of victory following significant losses experienced by Hamas during the conflict.

External mediators like Egypt and Qatar play a limited role, with the United States supporting Israel militarily and shielding it from international pressure for a cease-fire. U.S. political dynamics, including President Joe Biden’s stance on pressuring Netanyahu and potential retaliations from Iran, further complicate the situation. Despite recent escalations and targeted killings, cease-fire negotiations persist as mediators seek to bridge the gaps between the two leaders.