- Militants killed 26 civilians in Kashmir, escalating tensions between India and Pakistan.
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Experts predict a low chance of full-scale war but warn of risks, including nuclear escalation.
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India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty and economic impacts are potential consequences of the conflict.
Last week, militants killed 26 civilians in Kashmir. Most of the victims were tourists. This attack happened in a region that India and Pakistan have fought over for decades. Tensions have always been high between the two countries. The partition of British India in 1947 caused lasting anger and division. Over the years, their relationship has gotten worse, not better. In 2019, India removed Kashmir’s special status. Pakistan responded by cutting diplomatic ties and stopping trade. The recent killings reignited anger. India quickly blamed Pakistan for supporting the militants. Pakistan denied the accusation. But it also warned of possible retaliation by India. Now, both nations are closer to conflict than they have been in years.
Why A War Between These Two Nations Could Be Devastating
If India and Pakistan go to war, the consequences could affect the entire world. India has become a global supplier of generic medicines. If its pharmaceutical exports drop, many countries could suffer. India also controls the upper part of the Indus River, which flows into Pakistan. That river is vital for Pakistan’s farming and electricity. After the Kashmir attack, India paused a treaty that promises not to block river water. This move caused alarm. It raised fears that India could use water as a weapon. More troubling is that both countries have nuclear weapons. If a regular war begins, it might not stay conventional. A nuclear conflict would be a nightmare for the region and beyond. That’s why experts are closely watching every move.
Expert Forecasts Show a Low Risk of Immediate War
The Swift Centre, a forecasting organization, asked global experts to weigh in. They asked if a large-scale conflict could happen soon. The definition was a war causing at least 100 military deaths within two weeks. Most experts said it was unlikely but not impossible. Some believed the chance was small because past wars between India and Pakistan have been rare. For example, the last war with over 100 deaths was in 1999. Before that, it was in 1990. In the last 35 years, only two major military conflicts have happened. This gives a very low average rate. And since the forecast focused on just a two-week window, the chance of such a war is even lower.
Some Signs Suggest This Time Might Be Different
Despite the low base rate, some experts saw signs that this situation is unique. Cross-border skirmishes have already started. India said it will respond. Pakistan moved troops into Kashmir. This could spiral quickly. Nationalism is rising in both countries. Pakistan faces political and economic troubles. Leaders might use war to distract the public. Meanwhile, the U.S. usually acts as a peace broker. But this time, it has stayed quiet. On the other hand, experts noted that war isn’t easy to start. Both countries know the cost. Nuclear threats, weak economies, and outside pressure may hold them back. That makes a sudden, major war within two weeks still unlikely.
Risk of Bigger War Grows If Casualties Cross 100
Forecasters also looked at what might happen if fighting causes 100 or more military deaths by mid-May. If that happens, the chance of larger war rises fast. Some experts said both countries would try to cool things down. But others disagreed. They warned that after 100 deaths, emotions run high. Leaders might feel forced to act. One expert said that in such a case, there is a 33% chance that deaths could rise into the thousands by the end of June. If the death toll stays under 100, the chance of a wider war drops to just 2.3%. So, the next few days are key. Whether or not fighting escalates will decide what comes next.
India Pauses Water Treaty With Pakistan After Attacks
India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty in 1960. It survived wars in 1965 and 1971. But after the recent attack, India suspended the treaty. This was the first time that has ever happened. India said it won’t restart the deal unless Pakistan stops supporting cross-border terrorism. Experts said the future of the treaty depends on how much fighting happens. If the death count stays low, both sides might restore the agreement. But if conflict rises, bringing the treaty back could take months. Some experts think India may want to break the deal anyway. They say India wants more water for its own use. But others noted that India can’t quit the treaty alone. Also, China, which controls the headwaters, may pressure India to keep the deal. India may also lack the ability to block water in a big way. But new dams and reservoirs give it more power than before. That means water could become a future weapon if tensions stay high.
Pharmaceutical Exports Likely Safe Unless War Gets Huge
India’s generic drug industry is huge. It exports about $30 billion worth of medicine each year. The U.S. alone buys $7 billion of that. If war breaks out, some fear these exports might suffer. But experts think that’s unlikely unless there is a full-scale war. Ports near Pakistan, like in Gujarat, could face risk. But most pharma exports leave from Mumbai, which lies far from the conflict zone. Also, most past conflicts used airstrikes and small ground forces. A naval war that blocks exports seems unlikely. Experts said U.S. trade tariffs pose a bigger threat to Indian drug exports than any short-term war.
Nuclear War Still Seen As Very Unlikely But Not Impossible
The biggest fear is nuclear war. Luckily, most experts said it’s not likely, even if conflict starts. Both countries have had nuclear weapons for decades. Even during the 1999 Kargil War, they didn’t use them. Experts believe that neither side wants to go nuclear first. A mistake or misunderstanding is the biggest risk. Some raised the “mad major” scenario. That means a local military officer could launch a nuke without orders. But Pakistan keeps its warheads and launchers separate, which lowers that risk. Still, Pakistan’s military plan does allow the use of small nuclear weapons if it starts losing badly. That makes things dangerous if a war escalates fast. Overall, experts agreed that nuclear conflict is not expected. But they warned that with unclear rules and high tensions, nothing can be fully ruled out.