CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — Earth can breathe a sigh of relief as scientists have confirmed that the newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, poses no significant threat. Following two months of careful observation, NASA and the European Space Agency announced that the likelihood of the asteroid impacting our planet has been nearly eliminated.
Initially, calculations suggested a concerning 3% chance of a collision in 2032, placing 2024 YR4 high on global risk assessments. However, the ESA has since revised those odds significantly to just 0.001%, while NASA has calculated them to be 0.0017%. These figures assure us that the asteroid will pass Earth harmlessly in 2032 and will not pose a threat for at least the next century.
Paul Chodas, the head of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Objects Studies, expressed confidence that there is no possibility of those numbers increasing. “An Earth impact in 2032 is ruled out,” he stated, highlighting their initial expectations all along, despite the lack of absolute certainty at first.
However, attention remains on a potential lunar impact. NASA currently estimates a 1.7% chance that 2024 YR4 could collide with the moon on December 22, 2032. Chodas is optimistic that as observations continue, the potentially troubling odds will decrease.
Global telescopes will maintain their vigilance, tracking the asteroid’s trajectory. The Webb Space Telescope plans to focus on it next month to better determine its size before it becomes no longer visible in a few weeks. Discovered in December, the asteroid measures roughly between 130 feet (40 meters) and 300 feet (90 meters) wide, and it revisits our cosmic neighborhood every four years.
NASA remarked that while 2024 YR4 no longer poses a danger to Earth, its discovery has provided a valuable opportunity for scientific study and understanding.
