Dylan Harper approached the free-throw line last weekend, and the crowd at Maryland didn’t hold back, chanting “overrated!” as he stepped up.
The Scarlet Knights of Rutgers have had a challenging season, making it difficult to label them as overrated, especially since they are currently not receiving any votes in the AP Top 25. Despite this, there are numerous indications of their unfulfilled promise.
This year was anticipated to be transformative for Rutgers after recruiting two top-tier freshmen, Harper and Ace Bailey, who have generally met expectations on the court. Both are averaging 19 points per game and have appeared in various mock drafts as potential top-three selections behind Duke’s Cooper Flagg. Unfortunately, the Scarlet Knights hold a record of 12-12 and likely need to secure a victory in the Big Ten Tournament to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament.
While they notched a notable win against then-No. 23 Illinois last week, they were unable to capitalize on that momentum in their matchup with another ranked opponent, Maryland. Bailey was affected by illness, limiting his participation against the Terrapins.
“It’s just been that kind of year. You can’t plan these things,” stated coach Steve Pikiell. “You just play with the guys you have.”
Since taking the helm at Rutgers in 2016, Pikiell guided the Scarlet Knights to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 30 years back in 2021. After missing out the last two seasons, Rutgers had high hopes this year, aided by the arrivals of 6-foot-6 Harper and 6-foot-10 Bailey.
According to Sportradar, there have only been 15 occurrences of one school producing two of the top five picks in an NBA draft. The list includes renowned programs such as North Carolina, UCLA, Duke, and Kentucky. Should Rutgers find themselves producing two top-five picks in the 2025 draft, it would be a significant milestone. However, failing to qualify for the NCAA Tournament could lead them to unintended historical pitfalls. Among those 15 teams to have two top-five picks, nine reached the Final Four in that same season, while only one team, Kansas in 2014, did not make it to the Sweet 16 due to an injury to standout player Joel Embiid.
Injuries have impacted Rutgers throughout the season; Harper, who is the son of five-time NBA champion Ron Harper, recently dealt with a sprained ankle. Though he has returned, Bailey’s condition was compromised against Maryland.
“When you’re missing guys who have such an impact on the game, it becomes tough to come out on top,” said Harper.
Experience poses another challenge for Rutgers, as four of the starters during the game against Maryland were freshmen.
“It’s probably more common now, given the extra year granted during COVID, to see a lot of freshmen on the court,” commented Maryland coach Kevin Willard.
Earlier in the season, Rutgers showed competitiveness against teams like Alabama and Texas A&M, yet statistically, they have struggled. As of Tuesday, their adjusted offensive efficiency ranked outside the top 50 on Kenpom.com, and their defensive stats were barely in the top 100.
Ultimately, Rutgers fell 90-81 to Maryland, despite their competitive effort.
“We are improving,” Pikiell remarked. “Our defense has been performing well lately, but allowing 90 points on the road is not a winning formula in this league.”
As the regular season begins to wind down, the expectations surrounding the team have diminished significantly.
“I believe Steve has done an incredible job with this team. They’ve won two out of three games, and their defensive play has notably improved, particularly at home,” Willard noted. “If this squad were to remain intact next year, I would expect them to achieve an additional five wins.”
However, it is highly improbable that the current Rutgers lineup will stay together in the upcoming season. Just after being heckled by the Maryland audience, Harper showcased his NBA potential with an impressive spin move, culminating in an assist to teammate Dylan Grant for a dunk.
A moment of brilliance — but ultimately, it came in the context of yet another loss.
