GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador — Ecuador is gearing up for a potential runoff election later in 2023, based on early results from the initial round of voting held on Sunday. The count indicates a narrow lead for conservative President Daniel Noboa over leftist attorney Luisa González.
According to the National Electoral Council, with 66% of the votes counted, Noboa secured over 3.09 million votes, translating to 44.7% of the total, while González trailed closely with more than 3.02 million votes, or 43.8%. The 14 other candidates running in this election are far behind in terms of voter support.
This election appears to mirror the events of the 2023 race, in which voters opted for the young businessman Noboa over González, who is considered a protégé of Ecuador’s most powerful president of the last two decades. During the campaign, all candidates emphasized their commitment to tackling the rampant crime that has permeated everyday life over the past four years.
The surge in violence affecting Ecuador is closely associated with drug trafficking operations originating from neighboring Colombia and Peru. Many voters have personally experienced crime, which has heavily influenced their decision on whether a third president in four years can rejuvenate the country or if Noboa warrants another term.
The National Electoral Council also reported a robust voter turnout, with over 83% of approximately 13.7 million eligible voters participating in the election, which is mandatory in Ecuador. In Guayaquil, citizens queued outside a public university polling station, initially braving light rain before enduring the heat of the day.
Marta Barres, 35, expressed dissatisfaction with Noboa’s leadership as she brought her three teenagers to vote. “For me, this president is disastrous,” she declared. Barres, who reportedly pays $25 monthly to a local gang to avoid further intimidation, expressed her intention to support González, believing she has the capability to significantly reduce crime and enhance the economy.
To secure outright victory, a candidate must obtain at least 50% of the vote, or a minimum of 40% with a ten-point margin over the nearest rival. If neither candidate meets these criteria, a runoff election is planned for April 13. Over 100,000 police officers and military personnel were assigned across the nation to ensure electoral security. Noboa cast his vote in Olón, a small coastal community, accompanied by a significant security detail.
Noboa previously defeated González in an October 2023 runoff that resulted from then-President Guillermo Lasso’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly, shortening his own term. Both candidates had only limited legislative experience before launching their presidential bids.
At the age of 37, Noboa comes from a family that has made its wealth from the banana industry. He began his business ventures at 18 by founding an event planning company and later joined his father’s Noboa Corp. as a manager in shipping and logistics. His political journey began in 2021, when he was elected to the National Assembly and became the head of its Economic Development Commission.
Under Noboa’s administration, the homicide rate saw a decrease from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 in the previous year. However, this figure remains significantly elevated compared to the 6.85 per 100,000 rate recorded in 2019. Some of Noboa’s aggressive anti-crime strategies have faced scrutiny, as they raise questions about the legal and ethical boundaries of governance.
His policies include declaring a state of internal armed conflict in early 2024 to deploy military resources in areas overrun by organized crime. Additionally, he authorized a controversial police raid on Mexico’s embassy to apprehend former Vice President Jorge Glas, a fugitive and convicted criminal residing there. Yet his confrontational approach is garnering him support. “My vote was for Noboa because of his capabilities and his direct action against armed drug-trafficking groups and corruption,” stated Pablo Votruba, a retired physician from Quito.
On the other hand, González, 47, has an extensive background in government positions during Rafael Correa’s presidency, which lasted from 2007 to 2017. Correa’s administration was marked by lavish spending and an increasingly authoritarian stance before his imprisonment in 2020 due to a corruption issue. González served in the National Assembly until May 2023, when Lasso dissolved it. She was relatively unknown until she was chosen as the presidential candidate by Correa’s party for the snap election.
“It’s a matter of fear versus hope,” González remarked after casting her vote in her northwestern Ecuador hometown of Canuto, expressing her belief in the possibility of positive change. Meanwhile, Andrea González, another presidential contender (with no relation to Luisa), faced obstacles from soldiers who initially barred her entry into her polling station with security personnel. After negotiation, she was allowed entry with only her chief security advisor.
In Guayaquil, architecture student Keila Torres shared her uncertainty about her voting choice, indicating skepticism about any candidate’s ability to address the crime issues stemming from entrenched government corruption. “If I could, I wouldn’t be here,” Torres lamented, recounting experiences of witnessing multiple robberies and a near carjacking in recent years. “Things are not going to change.”
