JERUSALEM — This year marks 77 years since the mass expulsion of Palestinians from the land now known as Israel, a pivotal event in their ongoing national struggle. The gravity of this anniversary is underscored by the dire situation currently unfolding in the Gaza Strip, particularly in light of recent comments suggesting that displaced Palestinians should be permanently resettled outside of Gaza, possibly as part of a plan wherein the United States takes on some level of control in the area.
Palestinians refer to the events of 1948 as the Nakba, which translates to “catastrophe.” Approximately 700,000 Palestinians were forced to flee their homes before and during the war that followed Israel’s establishment. Following the conflict, the Israeli government prohibited their return to prevent a demographic shift that would result in a Palestinian majority. Consequently, this led to the establishment of what has become a protracted refugee crisis, with around six million Palestinians now living across crowded urban refugee camps in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
In Gaza, three-quarters of the population consists of refugees and their descendants. The rejection of the right of return by Israel remains a significant grievance for Palestinians and has consistently been a contentious issue in peace negotiations, which last broke down fifteen years ago. Historically, refugee camps have been hotspots for Palestinian militancy.
Today, there is a growing fear among Palestinians that their harrowing history may repeat itself on an even larger scale. As a ceasefire came into effect on January 19, people in Gaza have started to return to visit their destroyed homes. These journeys have fostered memories whose parallels stretch back to 1948, as images of individuals evacuating and then moving back north resemble those haunting black-and-white photographs from that era.
Mustafa al-Gazzar, who is now in his 80s, recalled his experiences as a child during the mass exodus from his village. His family faced bombs from above and sought refuge in makeshift shelters during their difficult journey to Rafah. Now, as a great-grandfather, he has been forced to flee again, this time seeking shelter in a tent in a disastrous encampment in Muwasi where conditions are far worse than in 1948. “My hope in 1948 was to return, but my hope today is to survive,” he stated somberly.
The ongoing war in Gaza, following Hamas’ attack on October 7, has claimed the lives of over 47,000 Palestinians, marking it as the deadliest phase in the long-standing conflict. In the initial assault, approximately 1,200 Israelis were also killed. The conflict has led to the displacement of about 1.7 million Palestinians—nearly 75% of Gaza’s population—forcing many to flee their homes multiple times, a stark contrast to the earlier waves of refugees in 1948.
The borders of Israel remain closed, and Egypt has allowed only a limited number of Palestinians to exit, largely due to fears of an overwhelming influx that could trigger another extensive refugee crisis in the region. The idea of mass expulsions of Palestinians has met significant opposition from the international community, despite being advocated by some far-right members within the Israeli government.
Israel argues for the integration of the 1948 refugees into host countries, asserting that the calls for their return could threaten the nation’s identity as a Jewish-majority state. They often cite the influx of Jews from Arab countries following their establishment, although those resettled rarely express a desire to go back.
Many Palestinians remain apprehensive about their future in Gaza, fearing they may be unable to return to their homes or that the destruction of the region may render it uninhabitable. According to a U.N. assessment, rebuilding the homes in Gaza could take until 2040.
During the 1948 conflict, Jewish militias primarily utilized lighter weaponry against the Arab nations’ armies. Numerous Palestinian villages were destroyed post-war, allowing Israeli settlers to occupy these spaces in cities like Jerusalem and Jaffa. Today, in Gaza, Israel’s military operations have unleashed unprecedented levels of destruction, with bombings of densely populated neighborhoods leading to widespread devastation.
Yara Asi, a Palestinian academic who has studied the impact on civilian infrastructure, has expressed concern regarding the formidable international effort needed to rebuild Gaza after such extensive damage. Before the current war, many Palestinians highlighted an ongoing Nakba marked by Israel’s systematic efforts to displace them from their territories in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, all areas sought for a future Palestinian state. Key issues like home demolitions and discriminatory policies have persisted long before the latest conflict, sparking criticisms from major human rights organizations who characterize this situation as akin to apartheid, although Israel has categorically denied these claims.
Amidst this environment, Asi and others worry that a new Nakba, if it were to happen, may manifest as a gradual exodus rather than an immediate displacement. “It won’t be called forcible displacement in some cases. It will be called emigration, it will be called something else,” Asi remarked. “But in essence, it is people who wish to stay, who have done everything in their power to stay for generations in impossible conditions, finally reaching a point where life is just not livable.”
