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French government likely to persevere as far-right chief opposes no-confidence vote

The leader of France’s far-right National Rally party announced on Tuesday that he opposes a no-confidence motion against the government, increasing the likelihood that the prime minister will retain their position and that the budget for 2025 will be successfully passed.

A vote of no-confidence is set to occur in the National Assembly on Wednesday, requiring a majority of the 577 votes to succeed. Leftist groups, including France Unbowed, the Communist Party, and the Greens, are anticipated to support the motion; however, they lack the necessary votes alone to dismantle the centrist administration.

Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, which holds the largest bloc in the National Assembly, remarked that “in the current period, the French would not benefit from a new period of instability.”

Meanwhile, the Socialist party announced that it would not endorse the no-confidence motion, emphasizing the necessity of providing France with a budget.

In a bid to ensure the budget’s passage, Prime Minister François Bayrou exercised special constitutional authority this past Monday to approve the 2025 budget without legislative voting.

According to France’s Constitution, if the no-confidence motion fails, the budget will automatically be considered accepted.

A previous no-confidence motion last December, resulting from budget disagreements, compelled former Prime Minister Michel Barnier to step down just three months into his tenure.

This time around, Bayrou is working towards establishing greater stability for his minority government by engaging in extensive negotiations with the Socialists to arrange a non-aggression pact.

Bayrou has agreed to allocate additional funding for public hospitals and has pledged not to eliminate 4,000 positions in national education. Additionally, he expressed openness last month toward revising a controversial proposal to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64.

The adjusted budget plans seek to confine France’s deficit to 5.4% of its gross domestic product for the current year.

French politics have faced significant turmoil since President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections last year, which resulted in no single party gaining a majority in the parliament.

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