BAGHDAD — The recent developments in Syria, particularly the fall of Bashar Assad, have prompted Iranian-aligned factions in Iraq to reevaluate their previous demands for the withdrawal of U.S. military personnel from the country, according to various Iraqi and American officials.
Last year, an agreement between the U.S. and Iraq was established to gradually reduce the presence of the American-led coalition’s military operations against the Islamic State group by September 2025, which included the withdrawal of U.S. forces from certain bases that have been occupied throughout a two-decade military engagement.
Prior to this shift, armed and political factions connected to Iran had been particularly vocal in their calls for the expulsion of American troops from Iraq, especially in the wake of the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which led to Israel’s intense bombardment and invasion of Gaza. In Iraq, as across much of the Arab world, U.S. support for Israel during this conflict—resulting in countless civilian deaths and mass displacement of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents—was met with widespread disapproval.
Upon the initial agreement to conclude the coalition’s efforts in Iraq, Iraqi leadership asserted that the threat posed by IS had diminished significantly, implying that U.S. assistance was no longer essential to counterterrorism efforts. However, the recent military success of Sunni Islamist rebels against Assad has led certain parties, particularly those within the Shiite Coordination Framework that supported the current Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, to reconsider this outlook.
The loss of Assad—a key ally of Iran—has diminished Tehran’s influence in the region. This shift has increased apprehension among allied factions in Iraq regarding their security and the potential for IS to exploit a possible power vacuum during the transition to new leadership in Syria and during the establishment of a national army.
A member of the Coordination Framework indicated, “The majority of the framework’s leaders now support the retention of American forces in Iraq due to the recent developments in Syria. They fear ISIS could seize the opportunity if U.S. troops were to depart, which might lead to a collapse in Iraq.” This sentiment was echoed by several other officials who requested anonymity to share their insights about the sensitive topic.
A senior member of Iraq’s National Security Service reported that during internal discussions, his agency had advised against seeking the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces, highlighting that it would not benefit Iraq at this time. He noted that there has been a marked decrease in calls for U.S. forces to leave, stating, “I anticipate that there will be no American withdrawal this year.”
Similarly, a senior U.S. defense official mentioned that Iraqi representatives have informally expressed a desire to postpone the conclusion of the coalition’s mission following Assad’s ouster, due to concerns about IS potentially leveraging the resulting instability and the numerous weapons lost by the former Syrian army. He acknowledged that while a resurgence of IS is not imminent, the possibility certainly exists.
There has been no official announcement from the Iraqi government regarding the extension of the coalition’s engagement timeline. Government spokesperson Bassim al-Awadi confirmed that current agreements remain unchanged, and discussions with coalition partners are ongoing. Although a formal request would be necessary to officially extend the withdrawal deadline, al-Sudani may hesitate to voice such a proposal publicly for fear of appearing weak to domestic critics, especially after previously advocating for the exit of U.S. troops. The Iraqi government is striving to navigate a complex relationship between its ties to both Iran and the United States.
The relationship between various Iraqi armed groups and U.S. forces has historically been complicated, with these factions sometimes attacking U.S. personnel and, at other times, collaborating against mutual adversaries. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), primarily composed of Iran-backed Shiite groups, emerged as a significant force against IS starting in 2014, when the group made significant territorial gains in Iraq.
Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at Chatham House in London, noted that while there was no active coordination between U.S. forces and the PMF at that point, both were united in their efforts against a common foe. Amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, some PMF factions have executed drone strikes against U.S. installations in Iraq and Syria but have refrained from such actions since Assad’s downfall.
Mansour pointed out that much of the apprehension surrounding Syria’s post-Assad landscape is rooted in Iraq’s historical experiences, with many leaders recalling the turmoil following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 that resulted in Saddam Hussein’s ousting. He remarked, “If the rationale behind withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq was that the battle against ISIS is over and stability has been achieved, that assessment must now be revised in light of the situation in Syria.” He emphasized that the threat of IS, in the context of an unstable and vulnerable Syria, remains a pressing concern for Iraq’s Coordination Framework and government.
