When rebels supported by Rwanda took control of the crucial city of Goma in eastern Congo this week, it triggered a series of denunciations against Rwanda from various quarters, including the United Nations as well as western nations like the United States, France, and the United Kingdom.

However, the global community has refrained from applying financial pressure on Kigali to withdraw its backing for the rebels, a stark contrast to the actions taken during similar events in 2012.

The difference is largely attributed to the changing perception of Rwanda’s status in both Africa and the West, where leaders have expressed admiration for President Paul Kagame’s role in the country’s recovery following its devastating genocide.
Analysts and diplomats note Rwanda’s adept branding and its strategic positioning as a critical military and economic partner, coupled with the lessened focus from countries that are currently engaged in conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Ukraine.

Ben Shepherd, a fellow at Chatham House’s Africa Program, explains that the current international response has been notably less than in 2012 for various reasons, including the new U.S. administration, other global crises, and Rwanda’s involvement in regional peacekeeping and security efforts.

In the past, foreign aid served as an essential leverage point over Rwanda.

Kagame’s ambition to turn his small east African nation into a formidable political and economic power has made the international community more hesitant to push against him.

This reluctance has been evident as he has eliminated term limits and cracked down on political opposition internally while also supporting armed groups across the Congolese border.

Despite Rwanda’s economy being largely dependent on foreign aid from countries like the United States, the World Bank, and the European Union, the international community continues to tread lightly.

In 2023, the United States provided Rwanda with $180 million in foreign assistance, while the World Bank’s International Development Association granted nearly $221 million. The European Union has pledged to invest over $900 million in Rwanda in the coming years as part of its Global Gateway strategy, aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Aid was a pivotal factor in 2012 when western powers pressed Rwanda to cease its involvement in the conflicts. Back then, donor nations withheld aid, and organizations like the World Bank expressed intent to do the same. Currently, only a few nations, including the U.K. and Germany, have hinted that Rwanda’s involvement in these conflicts might jeopardize aid flows.

Presently, the global community finds itself with diminished ability to influence Rwanda, especially as the M23 rebel group makes advances southward from Goma.

The United States had suspended military aid to Rwanda in 2012 prior to its seizure of Goma but found itself unable to make similar threats following another suspension last year.

President Trump’s administration also curtailed most foreign aid, significantly limiting the country’s ability to leverage aid as a tool of influence.

The M23 group, which is supported by Rwanda, is one of around 100 armed factions competing for territory in eastern Congo amid one of the continent’s longest-running conflicts, which has displaced 4.5 million individuals and created what the U.N. describes as one of the most intricate humanitarian crises globally.

A U.N. report released in July 2024 indicated the presence of at least 4,000 Rwandan troops active across the border in Congo, with more sightings noted this week.

Kagame alleges that the M23 rebels are merely protecting Tutsis from Hutu extremists, the same group responsible for the genocide that claimed approximately 800,000 lives without international intervention.

This failure has left a lasting impact on political considerations regarding Rwanda.

Daniel Van Dalen, a risk analyst based in South Africa, noted that Rwanda’s rhetoric regarding the genocide continues to resonate within Western perceptions, creating hesitancy towards taking decisive actions against the nation.

Today, numerous additional factors come into play.

Kagame’s vision to transform Rwanda into the “Singapore of Africa” has led to significant advancements in infrastructure, increased life expectancy, and attracted major businesses like Volkswagen as well as international sports leagues like the NBA.

Members of the international community frequently express admiration for Kigali’s clean environment, modern amenities, and its unique political landscape featuring a significant representation of women in parliament.

This transformation has earned Rwanda appreciation not only on the global stage but also within Africa, where others view its trajectory as a potential model for development.

A European diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous, remarked that the legacy of genocide still holds weight; however, Kagame’s adeptness in forging relationships with western nations has painted him as a pillar of stability and economic growth in the region.

Rwanda contributes more troops to U.N. peacekeeping operations than all but two other countries, serving as a significant contingent in Central African Republic, where U.S. concerns about rising Russian influence loom large.

Additionally, Rwanda has engaged in military pacts to support efforts against extremism in northern Mozambique, where French Total Energies is involved in developing offshore gas resources.

Jason Stearns, a political scientist and Congo expert at Simon Fraser University in Canada, pointed out Rwanda’s effective leverage of both its international diplomacy and military capabilities, positioning itself as a useful partner.

Decades ago, Rwanda was predominantly exporting agricultural products such as coffee and tea, but it has now emerged as a key player in access to critical minerals in East Africa, representing a crucial partner for western nations looking to compete with China.

Besides gold and tin, Rwanda has become a major exporter of tantalum, an essential component for semiconductor production.

Despite the lack of accurate mining statistics, the U.S. State Department had indicated last year that Rwanda exported more minerals than it mined, according to a U.N. report.

Recent lawsuits filed by Congo against Apple’s subsidiaries in France and Belgium accused Rwanda of sourcing minerals from eastern Congo.

Nevertheless, the European Union has established an agreement with Kigali to facilitate the importation of these crucial minerals.

This arrangement raised alarm among activists citing insufficient sourcing safeguards, arguing that it could exacerbate the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo.

In response, the EU maintained that the agreement is still developmental and that it is actively working on tracing the origins of the minerals.

Even if the West decided to tighten its response against Rwanda, analysts express that the current leverage is considerably weaker than what it was in 2012.

Kagame has strategically developed relations with non-western allies such as China and the UAE, which have now become Rwanda’s primary trading partners.

Furthermore, Rwanda has fostered improved relations with other African nations that played pivotal roles in resolving the 2012 crisis.

Shepherd noted the ongoing anticipation for the reactions from countries like South Africa and Angola, underscoring that while diplomatic pressure was exerted in 2012, it was the deployment of African forces in U.N. interventions that notably shifted the situation.