WASHINGTON — During his campaign last year, President Donald Trump made strong statements about possibly imposing tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports and hinted at reigniting the trade war that began during his initial presidency. However, now back in office, Trump seems to be approaching relations with China in a more measured way, recognizing it as a significant economic partner and a military powerhouse. Both Republicans and Democrats have increasingly viewed China as a serious foreign policy challenge for the U.S.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump stated, “We look forward to doing very well with China and getting along with China,” suggesting that he sees potential for cooperation, especially in addressing global issues like the war in Ukraine and the reduction of nuclear arms. As he prepares to roll out 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting February 1, he has yet to provide a concrete timeline for any tariffs on China. He has mentioned a lower 10% tax on Chinese imports as a response to Beijing’s fentanyl production but has not finalized any plans. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that Trump is still contemplating a potential increase in tariffs on China by the forthcoming date.
Since the time he first spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping just before taking office, Trump seems more cautious and aware of the complexities involved in U.S.-China relations. In a recent interview, he commented on the possibility of tariffs, indicating, “They don’t want them, and I’d rather not have to use it.” According to Liu Yawei, a senior adviser on China at the Carter Center in Atlanta, this shift demonstrates Trump’s increasing pragmatism.
Liu observed, “The signaling, at least from the election to the inauguration, seems to be more positive than has been expected before. Hopefully, this positive dynamic can be preserved and continued. Being more pragmatic, less ideological will be good for everyone.” Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, acknowledged that uncertainties remain in the U.S.-China relationship, but also noted that Trump’s recent tone shift provides “encouraging signals.”
Reflecting on the past, when Trump assumed office in 2017, his relationship with Xi appeared optimistic. Xi was welcomed at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, followed by a personal tour of the Palace Museum in Beijing. Yet, that goodwill soon deteriorated with the onset of a trade war the following year and was further strained by the COVID-19 pandemic. The tensions persisted under President Joe Biden, marked by controversial actions such as the visit to Taiwan by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the incident involving a Chinese spy balloon over U.S. airspace. Biden maintained Trump’s tariffs while heightening competition and restrictions on China.
Now, with Trump set to continue his presidency, Secretary of State Marco Rubio will play a crucial role in defining U.S.-China relations moving forward. During his confirmation hearing, Rubio criticized China for its deceitful practices and deemed it the most significant near-peer adversary the U.S. has faced. Shortly after taking office, Rubio engaged with foreign ministers from Australia, Japan, and India, reaffirming a multilateral approach to countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Even as Rubio’s past interactions have been tough on China, he also emphasized the importance of engagement for global peace and stability. Following their initial conversation since his confirmation, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi subtly warned Rubio to maintain decorum in discussions, leaving the impression that diplomatic communication is expected.
Trump’s recent softer stance toward China has been noted by some members of Congress. Representative Rosa DeLauro expressed hope that Trump would address critical policy measures, stressing a need to ensure that China is not treated too leniently.
On the Chinese side, there is an eagerness to create a more straightforward relationship with Trump, who is perceived as someone with a transactional approach. Da Wei suggests that direct engagement with the president, amidst differing opinions among his advisors, is vital. He also anticipates a meeting between Trump and Xi, which could lay the groundwork for more effective communication to avoid misunderstandings and escalations like those experienced during Trump’s first term.
China’s outreach during Trump’s second administration has also been notable, as Xi sent a representative in response to Trump’s inauguration invitation. There are signs that China might show flexibility on issues such as the future of TikTok. Unlike during his previous term, when Trump aimed to ban the app, Trump has signaled a willingness to allow more time for its parent company to divest.
After Trump’s recent comments expressing a preference not to impose tariffs, China’s Foreign Ministry remarked on the mutual benefits of trade and economic cooperation. Nevertheless, Beijing is prepared to respond robustly if needed, as it has instituted legal measures enabling prompt retaliation against any adverse U.S. actions.
Miles Yu, who leads the China Center at the Hudson Institute, has observed that Trump is exhibiting a greater degree of nuance and focus regarding China. He remarked, “He’s keeping his eyes on the prize, which is to maintain U.S. supremacy without risking open and avoidable confrontation with China, while perfectly willing to walk away from the negotiation table and play the hardball.”
