Currently, there is no standout player in the NBA rookie category this season. Unlike previous years where figures like Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, Luka Doncic, and others dominated, this time there is no clear frontrunner. In fact, many past winners of the Rookie of the Year title had nearly unanimous selections, which made their victories predictable well before votes were cast.
However, the situation this season appears to be quite different. No rookie has solidly established themselves as the leader in the class. There isn’t a first-year player projected to hit an average of 15 points or meet the qualifications for either rookie or league leaderboards—a feat not seen since the 2016-2017 season. Currently, the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year, as per BetMGM Sportsbook, is Kel’el Ware from Miami, despite having started only four games over the entire season—all occurring recently.
“I feel like I’m doing something right on the court,” Ware stated, acknowledging his growing presence in the game. Yet, this also reflects the fact that no one else in his rookie class has made a significant impact either, especially after it was announced that he wasn’t selected for the Rising Stars event during the All-Star weekend.
As of late Monday, the betting odds showed Ware leading at +200, followed closely by San Antonio’s Stephon Castle at +275. Memphis’ Jaylen Wells and Washington’s Alexandre Sarr were tied for third at +350, while Grizzlies center Zach Edey had odds of +1400. Beyond that, the remaining rookies were all distant long shots, sitting at least 40-1.
Should Castle ultimately take the title, it would mark a rare achievement for the Spurs, as they would have back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners for the first time in nearly fifty years—an accomplishment last seen when Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns won for Minnesota in consecutive seasons.
Ware is notably improving as the season progresses. After starting slowly and not hitting double digits in points until January 1, he recently delivered three consecutive 20-point games. This surge propelled him to the top of the rookie betting board, even though he did not earn a nomination for All-Star weekend’s Rising Stars competition.
It’s been a rapid shift for Ware, who was not considered a serious Rookie of the Year contender just weeks ago. His teammate, Tyler Herro, praised him, saying, “Believe it or not, he’s been ready since he came here. When he wasn’t in the rotation, he was overly communicative about how he wants to be in the rotation and how he feels like he can help.”
The NBA announced ten rookies for the Rising Stars competitions, including Wells, Sarr, Castle, Edey, and more. With McCain sidelined due to injury for the rest of the season, there may be a chance for Ware or another rookie to step into that role.
Ultimately, as the voting period approaches in April, there could be an intriguing race for Rookie of the Year. Historical trends show that recent winners have had overwhelming support, capturing 90% or more of the first-place votes. A notable exception to this pattern was in 2022 when Scottie Barnes edged Evan Mobley in a closer battle, highlighting that competitive races aren’t common.
So far, there hasn’t been a dominant rookie presence this season, which promises to spice things up as the award discussions begin.
