Mediators have announced that both Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to halt hostilities in Gaza, commencing on Sunday, after 15 months of ongoing conflict. The agreement also includes the exchange of numerous hostages held in Gaza for Palestinians who are currently incarcerated in Israel.
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had not confirmed the finalization of this agreement by Tuesday, this ceasefire has the potential to conclude what has become the deadliest and most devastating conflict between Israel and Hamas. This turmoil has profoundly impacted the broader region and has left the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict unresolved at its core.
In the course of the war, Israel has achieved notable tactical successes, including the elimination of key Hamas leaders and major strikes against both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, which supports both factions. However, Israel has not entirely fulfilled two primary objectives: Hamas has remained resilient, albeit significantly weakened, and some hostages taken during Hamas’ October 7, 2023 assault perished while in captivity. Their deaths were due to a variety of circumstances, with some being killed inadvertently by Israeli forces and others by Hamas as Israeli troops closed in.
The return of hostages is perceived as a sacred duty for many Israelis, leading them to accept the heavy toll of releasing large numbers of imprisoned militants in often imbalanced exchanges. The failure to reach an agreement after extensive discussions has caused significant distress within the nation.
Netanyahu, who vowed “total victory” and the full return of all hostages, faced widespread protests from critics—including families of the hostages—who accused him of prioritizing political gain over the swift retrieval of their loved ones, allegations he strongly repudiated.
The military operation has incited global denunciation, with the International Court of Justice exploring claims of genocide and the International Criminal Court issuing warrants for Netanyahu, his former defense minister, and a senior Hamas commander for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. Israel refutes these claims, asserting that it takes every possible step to minimize civilian casualties, attributing those deaths to Hamas using civilian areas for military operations.
Hamas contends that its October 7 attack aimed to thrust the Palestinian issue back into the international spotlight, retaliating against Israel for its measures in the occupied territories and seeking the release of Palestinian detainees. While it effectively captured global attention, it has come with devastating repercussions for Palestinians, resulting in extensive loss of life, collapsed communities, and an ever more distant realization of statehood.
Local health authorities report that over 46,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, predominantly women and children, though they do not specify how many were combatants. The Israeli military claims to have killed over 17,000 militants, but without providing corroborating data.
Gaza has been severely devastated, with desolate landscapes filled with destroyed buildings and heaps of debris. Approximately 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been displaced, with countless individuals facing hunger and disease while living in deplorable conditions in tent camps along the coast, as noted by United Nations officials.
Although many of Hamas’ high-ranking leaders and numerous mid-level officials have been killed and its stockpile of rockets significantly diminished, the organization still retains its status as the leading power in the region and continues to execute attacks on Israeli forces. According to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Hamas has reportedly replenished its ranks with nearly as many new fighters as it has lost.
Netanyahu, known for his political resilience, has managed to remain in power despite presiding over a substantial security and intelligence lapse in the nation’s history. His narrow coalition government has supported him, prioritizing the offensive against Hamas over personal admission of faults.
However, his alliances with far-right factions are endangered due to his decisions regarding the release of Palestinian prisoners involved in deadly attacks on Israelis. Even if his coalition does not immediately fracture, Netanyahu’s position is expected to weaken given the public scrutiny that has arisen from the ongoing conflict.
Netanyahu will likely struggle to use the conflict as justification for postponing a public inquiry into the October 7 attack, which may implicate his leadership. Regardless, analysts do not predict that his decades-long political career is over yet.
This is attributed in part to the anticipated return of Donald Trump to the White House, bringing with him supporters who are aligned with Netanyahu’s vision of expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank, which may help unify Israel’s nationalist right and support Netanyahu in maintaining power until the next scheduled elections in 2026.
At present, there is no clear strategy for Gaza’s future following the war. It is possible that Hamas may experience a boost in popularity due to its survival and achievement in releasing prisoners. The group, established in the late 1980s, is deeply rooted in Palestinian society, with a significant presence in both the occupied West Bank and refugee camps in Lebanon.
In Gaza, there are no apparent alternatives to Hamas. The Biden administration has sought to consolidate regional allies behind comprehensive post-war strategies intended to revitalize the Palestinian Authority and assist in rebuilding Gaza through cooperation with Arab nations, such as Saudi Arabia, which the White House hopes will establish normalized relations with Israel.
Nevertheless, these nations have tied their support to the establishment of a path toward a Palestinian state encompassing Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem—territories seized by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War. This proposition is dismissed by Netanyahu’s administration, which opposes the idea of Palestinian statehood.
Netanyahu has expressed intentions for Israel to maintain indefinite security oversight and to collaborate with politically neutral Palestinians for Gaza’s governance—though forthcoming candidates are unlikely to volunteer given Hamas’ warnings against cooperating with such initiatives.
As long as Hamas retains control over significant portions of Gaza, it is improbable that Israel and Egypt will lift the blockade established when Hamas took command in 2007. A United Nations analysis suggests that under continued blockade conditions, the reconstruction of Gaza could take an astonishing 350 years.
The ongoing war has triggered international protests and heightened tensions on American college campuses, leading to divisions within the Democratic Party and influencing Trump’s recent electoral success in November. Supporters of Israel commended President Biden for steadfastly backing a key ally during its crisis, whereas critics accused him of yielding to Netanyahu and indirectly facilitating war crimes by supplying Israel with military resources.
In contrast, Trump could assert that he fulfilled his commitment to terminate Middle Eastern conflicts even prior to taking office. His Middle Eastern envoy, Steve Witkoff, participated in the concluding negotiations, claiming that Trump’s upcoming presidency commenced a revitalization of the peace process, while the current administration maintains that the agreement reflects its dedicated influence over the preceding months.
The pursuit of broader peace in the Middle East continues to prove elusive, with the incoming administration tasked with navigating the ceasefire through forthcoming and more challenging phases. Trump will also need to deliberate on how far he is willing to endorse Netanyahu’s agenda regarding West Bank annexation while addressing a still-resilient Iran and its affiliated groups in the region.
Ultimately, a ceasefire does not resolve the foundational issues that led to this latest conflict. Violence in the West Bank has surged, coupled with a significant rise in Israeli settlements in recent years. The delicate equilibrium governing a holy site esteemed by both Jews and Muslims—an area that Hamas referenced as the catalyst for its October 7 offensive—has gradually deteriorated, leading to heightened tensions and violence.
This latest outbreak of violence in Gaza marks the worst yet, and many fear it may not be the last.
