New Orleans Saints (5-9) are set to face off against the Green Bay Packers (10-4) on Monday night at 8:15 p.m. EST, airing on ABC and ESPN. According to BetMGM, the Packers are favored to win by 13½ points. This matchup marks the Saints’ struggle against the spread at 6-8, while the Packers have an 8-6 record against the spread. Historically, the Packers lead the series with 18 wins to the Saints’ 10, having narrowly edged New Orleans 18-17 in their previous encounter on September 24, 2023. Last week, the Saints fell short with a close 20-19 loss at home against the Washington Commanders, while the Packers pulled off a solid 30-13 victory in Seattle.
In terms of offensive performance, the Saints rank 15th overall, 11th in rushing, 20th in passing, and 18th in scoring. The Packers, on the other hand, have a much more robust offense, standing 4th overall, tied for 4th in rushing, 11th in passing, and 7th in scoring. Meanwhile, defensively, the Saints are struggling significantly, ranking 30th overall, 27th against the run, 28th against the pass, and 13th in scoring defense. The Packers show a much stronger defensive record, ranking 10th overall, 9th against the run, 15th against the pass, and 8th in scoring defense. Notably, the Saints currently boast a turnover differential of plus-1, while the Packers lead with an impressive plus-10.
A player to keep an eye on for the Saints is defensive end Chase Young, who recently notched two sacks against Washington. The Ohio State alum was selected second overall in the 2020 draft and is capable of causing disruption for the Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love, despite Green Bay’s solid pass protection this season. For the Packers, linebacker Edgerrin Cooper stands out after earning NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors for the second time this season. His recent performance included eight tackles, an interception, a forced fumble, and a sack against Seattle. Cooper’s achievement is notable as he becomes the first Packers player since Clay Matthews in 2010 to earn this accolade twice in one season.
One key matchup to watch is the Saints’ offensive line versus the Packers’ pass rush. While the Packers’ pass rush has shown inconsistencies, they recently excelled with a seven-sack performance against Seattle, led by Kingsley Enagbare’s two sacks. If quarterback Spencer Rattler starts in place of the injured Derek Carr, he will need ample protection from the Saints’ offensive line, which has allowed only two sacks per game, ranking tied for eighth in the league.
Injury updates are crucial for this matchup. Carr has been dealing with a left (non-throwing) hand injury, but the Saints have stated he won’t be placed on injured reserve, and his status is day-to-day. Running back Alvin Kamara is facing a groin and adductor injury, and interim head coach Darren Rizzi expressed concern over Kamara’s prospects for this week. For the Packers, cornerback Jaire Alexander has missed the past four games due to a knee injury but practiced fully on Thursday. Safety Javon Bullard also missed the Seattle game with an ankle injury, while linebacker Quay Walker exited that game with an ankle concern.
The historical context of this series reveals that the Packers were able to mount a significant comeback during their last meeting, overcoming a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Notably, this meeting marks the first time the Packers and Saints will clash at Lambeau Field in December or later. The Packers have a strong home record against the Saints, winning three of their last four encounters at home, with six of the last seven meetings at Lambeau Field decided by single-digit margins.
In terms of projections, the Packers have won eight of their last ten games and could clinch a playoff spot as early as this week’s matchup, depending on other teams’ results. Conversely, Spencer Rattler showed promise in relief duty last week, leading the Saints to four straight scoring drives. Despite earlier struggles as a starter (with an 0-3 record), last week’s performance may boost his confidence. Kamara achieved his 25th touchdown reception, placing him among an elite group of players with both significant rushing and receiving touchdowns. Meanwhile, Saints receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling has found success recently, amassing over 50 receiving yards in four of his past five games.
On the defensive side for the Saints, Cameron Jordan reached a milestone with his 25th career game featuring multiple sacks. Furthermore, linebacker Demario Davis has maintained impressive tackle statistics, wrapping up the season with over 100 tackles for the eighth consecutive year. Meanwhile, the Packers’ Xavier McKinney leads the league with seven interceptions, additional evidence of the many narratives and stats that could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this significant Monday night game.
As for fantasy players, if you’re looking for a running back, New Orleans’ Kendre Miller could be a valuable addition from the waiver wire, especially if Kamara’s injury keeps him sidelined. Miller showcased potential with nine carries for 46 yards against the Commanders and could lead the rushing attack for the Saints if Kamara is unable to go.