According to Sheriff Don Barnes of Orange County, California’s jails are not facing a crisis, despite record numbers of inmates losing their lives even as the jail population decreases.
Barnes, who also serves as the president of the California State Sheriffs’ Association, stated, “Claiming that people are dying in jails is somewhat misleading. Those who are passing away under our supervision are not necessarily doing so because they are incarcerated. They are succumbing to factors related to personal choices, such as drug use, health conditions, or cancer.”
He emphasized that the increase in death records is not merely reflective of issues stemming from jail conditions.
Consequently, Barnes is not worried about the implications of Proposition 36, a crime measure recently enacted, which could potentially reverse the trend of decreasing jail populations. He does not believe this increase will result in a rise in in-custody deaths.

Contrary to Barnes’ perspective, advocates, academics, and families of deceased inmates fear that California may soon experience an uptick in jail deaths, surpassing those witnessed in the past four years.
Passed by voters in November, Prop. 36 is likely to elevate jail populations by imposing harsher penalties for specific offenses and permitting district attorneys to categorize certain misdemeanors as felonies, as per the Legislative Analyst’s Office.
Yusef Miller, who represents families of individuals who have died in San Diego jails, expressed concern that increasing the number of incarcerated individuals will exert additional stress on an already strained jail system.
He stated, “We argued that Prop. 36 would inflate jail populations, but this increase will push an already dysfunctional system to its breaking point, resulting in further loss of life due to neglect.”

Statistics from the Justice Department indicate that a rise in overdoses has influenced the trend of increasing jail deaths, with suicide and natural causes also noted as significant factors.
Jails are legally responsible for the health care of inmates; however, ex-medical staff have highlighted issues of burnout and excessive workloads, particularly since the onset of the pandemic.
Furthermore, a 2023 Public Policy Institute of California report revealed that over half of jail inmates have mental health needs, complicating their care.
In 2019, the death toll in California jails peaked at 156 individuals. In response, Governor Gavin Newsom committed to implementing more rigorous measures to curb these fatalities across the state’s 57 county jail systems.
However, the trend has not reversed; in fact, subsequent years have seen even higher fatalities, with a record 215 deaths reported in 2022.
Data up to July 2023 shows that 68 inmates had already died in California jails this year.

Californians for Safety and Justice, an organization aimed at reducing jail and prison expenditures, predicts that Prop. 36 could lead to an additional 130,000 inmates being housed in California jails annually, roughly 100,000 of whom would be detained pre-trial and approximately 30,000 serving one-year terms post-conviction.
However, not all inmates would be incarcerated simultaneously. In June 2024, the average daily jail population statewide was recorded at 56,795 individuals.
Michele Deitch, director of the Prison and Jail Innovation Lab at the University of Texas at Austin, argues that an increase in jail populations is almost certain to result in more deaths.
She noted, “With higher numbers, jails will face overcrowding, which can alter internal dynamics and potentially escalate mortality rates. Counties will soon realize the financial burden of maintaining such numbers and may have to consider alternatives like pre-trial diversion programs to mitigate overcrowding.”

The support for Prop. 36 can be seen as a shift in California’s political landscape; a decade earlier, voters approved Proposition 47, which relaxed penalties for certain crimes, framed as a means to save costs and enhance public safety through a focus on treatment rather than imprisonment.
However, there was a notable surge in shoplifting and commercial burglaries during the pandemic, particularly in areas such as Los Angeles, Alameda, San Mateo, and Sacramento counties.
A report from the Public Policy Institute of California indicated a 28% increase in shoplifting above $950 over the previous five years, marking the highest levels since 2000.
Taking into account both shoplifting and related burglaries, researchers noted an 18% rise in total thefts compared to 2019.
Law enforcement and major retailers attributed this trend to Prop. 47, successfully rallying public support for Prop. 36.

In Orange County specifically, Sheriff Barnes reported a record 18 in-custody deaths in 2021, dropping to six in 2023, with eight reported this year thus far.
Barnes remarked, “Our jail has capacities for several thousand beds. Other counties may struggle to accommodate increased numbers without releasing people prematurely from custody.”
He added, “It isn’t simply a matter of assuming that higher population numbers will lead to increased mortality; I do not subscribe to that perspective.”

Back in 2011, California established a board to oversee its county-run jails as part of a plan to alleviate overcrowding in state prisons by transferring many inmates to these facilities.
The oversight board, which comprises members predominantly from law enforcement backgrounds, has faced criticism for being overly lenient.
Recent reports indicate that the board has ramped up unannounced inspections of jails, a shift from their previous practice of biannual visits announced in advance.
Under a new law, a dedicated staff member is now tasked with reviewing in-custody deaths and hosting community engagement sessions in at least two cities.
Although the oversight board has not yet consulted with local law enforcement regarding the potential impact of Prop. 36 on county jail populations, they plan to publicly release statewide in-custody death data next year.

Miller, representing the San Diego families affected by in-custody deaths, remains skeptical about whether the oversight board or counties will respond adequately if jail deaths continue at the current rate.
He remarked, “As new initiatives evolve, pledging that conditions won’t deteriorate further, we must hold them accountable and maintain close scrutiny on their actions. That is the only hope we have.”