HMEIMIM, Syria — A fleet of Russian military vehicles made its way along the highway toward the city of Tartus on Monday, under the watchful eyes of soldiers stationed nearby.
Aircraft frequently took off and landed at Russia’s Hmeimim air base in the coastal province of Latakia, with smoke billowing from the facility, though the source of the smoke remained unknown.
In Hmeimim, a town surrounded by orange orchards, several storefronts display signs in Russian, highlighting the importance of Russian military engagement in the area.
However, questions linger about the future of this military presence following the recent downfall of the former Syrian leader Bashar Assad, with uncertainty surrounding its duration and conditions.
Russia’s aggressive military involvement supported Assad’s regime, which notably shifted the dynamics of the ongoing Syrian civil war. In 2017, a significant agreement was reached between Assad’s government and Russia, granting Russia a 49-year lease on the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.
Recently, opposition factions in northwest Syria launched an unexpected offensive that has once again threatened the stability of Assad’s regime. Interestingly, Moscow took a step back during this initiative, although it has offered asylum to Assad and his family.
In a public statement made for the first time since his ouster, Assad disclosed that he evacuated from Damascus to the Hmeimim air base on December 8 after opposition forces infiltrated the capital, asserting he never intended to abandon the country. He indicated that following drone attacks on the base, Russian forces opted to transport him to safety in Russia.
Since Assad’s exit, there have been no confrontations between Russian troops and the former rebels, who have effectively reclaimed control over security across Syria.
This is notable given that many of these fighters hail from northern regions previously subjected to intense Russian aerial attacks.
A fighter tasked with monitoring the deserted civilian airport adjacent to the Hmeimim base stated Monday, “The Russians are preparing to withdraw from Syria, God willing,” preferring to remain anonymous due to lack of authorization to speak publicly.
Russian military presence in some regions of Syria is diminishing as they have been observed leaving southern areas heading toward their main base located in Latakia.
Additionally, reports from the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have indicated that Russian forces are vacating bases in Ain Issa and Tel Al-Samn, situated in the Al-Raqqah countryside.
Recent satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies also suggests activity at a Russian airfield in Syria, showing cargo planes ready to load heavy equipment and helicopters being disassembled for transport.
In an effort to secure its bases and prolong its military involvement, Moscow has engaged with the newly established Syrian authorities. At the Syrian Embassy in Moscow, the flag representing the Syrian revolution was raised, replacing the former regime’s emblem.
In an interview, Obeida Arnaout, the spokesperson for the political division of the new transitional government, urged Russia to “reconsider its presence” in Syria along with its strategic interests, although he acknowledged that Russian forces might continue to operate in the country.
“Their interests were closely associated with the criminal Assad regime. They have the opportunity to reflect on their stance and connect with the new administration to demonstrate their goodwill towards the Syrian populace, signaling an end to the Assad era,” Arnaout remarked.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that discussions are ongoing with the new authorities. “We are engaged in dialogue with representatives of the groups currently controlling the situation in the country, and outcomes will be determined through these discussions,” Peskov stated.