WASHINGTON — Even though Donald Trump has been re-elected for a second term, a recent survey indicates that many Americans are not particularly confident in his ability to select qualified individuals for his Cabinet or manage government-related tasks like spending and military oversight, as revealed by a study conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
As Trump begins to announce appointments for critical positions within his administration — some of which may face challenging confirmation processes in the Senate, despite Republican control — nearly half of U.S. adults express being “not at all confident” in his capability to choose suitable candidates for high-level government roles.
The rapid pace of the appointment process reflects Trump’s commitment to being a transformative figure in Washington, reminiscent of the tumultuous governance style that characterized his initial four years in office. Only about 30% of Americans report being “extremely” or “very” confident in his ability to appoint capable individuals for his administration. Interestingly, a larger portion of Republicans maintain confidence in his choices.
Trump aims to bring significant change to Washington, proposing the establishment of a Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. This task force, expected to be led by billionaire Elon Musk alongside entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, is designed to seek methods for reducing the federal workforce, cutting programs, and eliminating federal regulations.
The survey reveals a parallel level of skepticism regarding Trump’s ability to manage government spending and execute other essential presidential duties, which include overseeing the military and operations of the White House. These duties were marked by notable staff turnover during Trump’s first term, particularly in its infancy.
In contrast, President Joe Biden faced different public expectations when he took office four years ago, encountering a mixed level of confidence in his capacity to address important issues.
The prevalent lack of confidence in Trump’s leadership is primarily observed among Democrats and independents. A significant majority of Democrats, approximately 75%, feel he will struggle with managing the White House, federal spending, the military, or selecting competent candidates for his Cabinet.
Independents show a similar trend, with about 40% expressing a “slight” or “no confidence” in Trump’s ability to fulfill these roles, while only about 20% exhibit “extreme” or “very” confidence in his capabilities.
Republicans display a higher level of confidence, but this does not entirely counterbalance the predominant skepticism from other groups. Roughly 60% of Republicans are either “extremely” or “very” confident in Trump’s aptitude for selecting qualified personnel to serve in his Cabinet and managing the military, government spending, and the White House. However, about 20% of Republicans fall into the categories of “moderately confident” or “slightly” or “not at all” confident.
It is noteworthy that when Biden assumed office in 2021, he too encountered concerns about his ability to manage key responsibilities. Yet, unlike the evenly distributed apprehension surrounding Trump, Biden benefitted from certain areas where public confidence was higher. His extensive experience, having served as Vice President under Barack Obama and in the Senate, contributed to the perception that he would manage well.
An alternative AP-NORC poll taken shortly after the start of Biden’s presidency indicated greater faith in his capability to appoint qualified Cabinet members and manage the White House compared to managing military operations and government finances.
The survey, which included 1,251 adults and was conducted between December 5-9, 2024, used a sample from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, aiming to accurately represent the U.S. populace. The sampling error for the overall results is approximately plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
