PARIS — The French government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier is facing a critical moment, with opposition factions from both the left and the far right intent on dismantling his administration. A no-confidence vote has been set for Wednesday in the National Assembly, following a contentious budget discussion, and there is a strong likelihood that it could succeed.
Should the vote pass, Barnier’s Cabinet would enter the record books as the shortest-serving government in France’s modern political landscape, signaling a new level of instability for the country’s governance. Should his administration fall, it would be up to President Emmanuel Macron to appoint a successor.
The current political situation is tumultuous, stemming from the parliamentary elections held in June and July, which resulted in a fragmented National Assembly divided among three main groups: the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, Macron’s centrist allies, and the far-right National Rally party. None of these blocs gained an unequivocal majority.
In September, Macron tasked Barnier, who represents conservative interests, with leading a new government composed mainly of Republicans and centrists, while hoping to gain some level of support from the far-right. However, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Rally, has now voiced her party’s decision to support the no-confidence vote, alleging that Barnier has neglected their demands.
Simultaneously, the left-wing coalition is criticizing the proposed budget as one of austerity and is lamenting a lack of communication and collaboration within parliamentary processes.
For the no-confidence motion to succeed, it must gather the support of at least half of the National Assembly’s members, which translates to 289 votes out of 577. Collectively, the left and far-right have more than 330 lawmakers, but some may choose to abstain from voting.
If the government is ousted, it could represent the first successful no-confidence vote in over sixty years. In that case, Macron might request the departing ministers to manage current affairs until a new prime minister is appointed. It is important to note that the National Assembly’s composition would remain unchanged, as new legislative elections cannot occur before July, according to the French Constitution, which mandates that the Assembly remain intact for at least one year.
No clear successor to Barnier has yet emerged, although some reports suggest that Macron could select someone from his centrist faction. The New Popular Front is advocating for the establishment of a left-leaning Cabinet instead. In a more extreme stance, some opposition members are demanding Macron’s resignation, although he has dismissed such options in the past.
Turning to the budget, it’s crucial to clarify that France does not face imminent government shutdowns similar to those experienced in the United States, which can halt various public services and benefit payments. Any outgoing government could still introduce a special law to impose taxes starting January 1, based on this year’s regulations. They would also retain the authority to manage spending by decree to ensure that civil servants and pensioners receive their payments.
Nonetheless, this situation would stall anticipated tax increases on large corporations and hinder any new spending initiatives. Among these was a planned supplemental expenditure of 3.3 billion euros ($3.5 billion) for the military, crucial for ongoing support for Ukraine amid its conflict with Russia. Later on, a newly appointed government would have the opportunity to present budget proposals to parliament.
Financial markets have taken notice of these developments, with Barnier sounding alarms about “significant storms and severe turbulence” that may impact market stability. France is under scrutiny from the European Union for its substantial debt levels. Current estimates suggest the country’s deficit this year will reach 6% of its Gross Domestic Product, and analysts warn it could escalate to 7% next year unless significant austerity measures are introduced.
This ongoing political uncertainty could cause French interest rates to spike further, exacerbating the debt situation. Additionally, the lack of a coherent parliamentary majority raises serious questions about the feasibility of implementing major reforms by any forthcoming government.