JERUSALEM — The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has brought a sense of relief to many in the Middle East, marking the first notable advancement in the region since the onset of the war over a year ago. However, for Palestinians in Gaza and families of hostages held in the region, this announcement signals the beginning of an even darker chapter in the ongoing conflict, as it underscores yet another lost chance to conclude fighting that has continued for nearly 14 months.
Palestinians were optimistic that a ceasefire with Hezbollah would also extend to Gaza. The relatives of those abducted during the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel in October 2023 had hoped for the inclusion of measures for the return of their loved ones in any peace agreement. Instead, the ceasefire applies solely to the conflict in Lebanon, leaving the situation in Gaza unresolved. “We feel this is a missed opportunity to tie in the hostages in this agreement that was signed today,” expressed Rubi Chen, whose son, Itay Chen, was among the individuals taken hostage from an Israeli military installation.
Although the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza are intricately linked, they differ significantly. Israel’s objective in Lebanon has been to push Hezbollah away from the shared border and to halt the militant group’s attacks into northern Israel. The ceasefire that commenced on Wednesday is aimed specifically at achieving that goal. Conversely, Israel’s ambitions in Gaza are much broader. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has firmly stated that Hamas must be obliterated while Israel maintains lasting authority over portions of the territory. Efforts for negotiation have failed to convince Netanyahu to ease his stance or persuade Hamas to free hostages under such conditions.
For Gazans, this has resulted in ongoing suffering amidst an Israeli military campaign that has devastated much of the territory and displaced nearly the entire population. Hundreds of thousands face severe food shortages and are currently living in deplorable tent encampments, grappling with cold rains and floods as winter deepens. “How can they agree to a ceasefire in one area while neglecting another? Have mercy on the children, the elderly, and the women,” voiced Ahlam Abu Shalabi, who is sheltering in a tent in central Gaza. “Now that it’s winter, everyone is suffering.”
The conflict ignited between Israel and Hamas on October 7, 2023, when militants from Gaza launched an attack on Israel, resulting in approximately 1,200 fatalities and around 250 hostages being taken. Israel’s retaliatory efforts have led to catastrophic damage in Gaza, where local health officials report over 44,000 deaths, with more than half identified as women and children.
Following Hamas’s assault, Hezbollah aligned itself with the Palestinian group and commenced its own attacks on Israel. This prompted Israel to amass troops at its northern border and intensify aerial bombardments of southern Lebanon, leading to significant casualties among Hezbollah’s leadership. Now, Palestinians worry that Israel can fully redirect its military activities back to Gaza, as Netanyahu indicated he would do since announcing the ceasefire in Lebanon. “The pressure will be more on Gaza,” stated Mamdouh Younis, who is displaced and living in a central Gaza tent camp. He remarked that Gaza now stands alone, isolated from other supporting fronts, particularly the one in Lebanon.
Israeli forces are engaged in intense battles in northern Gaza, with a two-month-long campaign that has nearly cut off humanitarian aid, leading experts to warn of an impending famine. Airstrikes across the region regularly claim many lives. In agreeing to the ceasefire, Hezbollah has shifted its long-standing position that it would not cease its activities unless Israel halted its actions in Gaza.
“This could alter the psychological landscape, reinforcing the belief that Palestinians in Gaza are isolated in their struggle against their occupiers,” commented Tariq Kenney Shawa, a U.S. policy fellow affiliated with Al-Shabaka, a Palestinian think tank. Consequently, Hamas, already severely weakened by Israeli offensives, may face an uphill battle. Hamas official Osama Hamdan expressed acceptance of Hezbollah’s new position, stating, “Any announcement of a ceasefire is welcome. Hezbollah has stood by our people and made significant sacrifices.”
Analysts suggest that this ceasefire could diminish Hamas’s standing in Gaza, exposing the failures of its strategy aimed at unifying various militant groups against Israel. “We might witness a decline in Hamas’s credibility as they grapple to validate their approach to the public,” noted Khalil Sayegh, a Palestinian analyst.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked that the ceasefire could compel Hamas to engage in negotiations, indicating that outside support may not be forthcoming. However, experts foresee Hamas entrenching itself both in combat and in negotiations, as it demands a complete Israeli withdrawal for the release of all hostages in Gaza. “I expect Hamas will persist with guerrilla warfare tactics for as long as Israeli forces remain in Gaza,” Shawa added.
As public sentiment lingers, numerous Israelis gathered along a major highway in Tel Aviv, advocating for the return of hostages, simultaneously awaiting updates on the Lebanon ceasefire. Approximately 100 individuals captured are still in Gaza, with a significant percentage believed to be deceased. Many other hostages captured during previous conflicts were released during a ceasefire last year.
Ricardo Grichener, whose nephew Omer Wenkert is among the hostages, criticized the Israeli government for seemingly neglecting the plight of the hostages. Despite Israel inflicting heavier damage on Hamas in Gaza than on Hezbollah in Lebanon, he remarked that “the decision to delay a resolution in Gaza regarding the hostages does not rely on equivalent military criteria for success.” The latest efforts to de-escalate the war faltered in October, and now, following the re-election of former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden has indicated intentions for renewed diplomacy, although time is running out.
“This ceasefire ignores our hostages. I believe Netanyahu has forgotten them, prioritizing continued conflict in Gaza,” lamented Ifat Kalderon, holding onto a picture of her cousin Ofer, who has been taken hostage and is a father of four. “Ofer celebrated his 54th birthday yesterday. It’s his second birthday away from home in Gaza,” she shared in disbelief. “It’s unimaginable that he remains there.”