BANGKOK — A significant rebel group has taken control of a vital trading town located in northeastern Myanmar near the Chinese border, marking another setback for the country’s military-led administration, as reported by various witnesses.
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA)’s conquest of Kanpaiti has resulted in the military maintaining dominance over just one crossing town, Muse, which limits its access to potential revenue derived from rare earth mineral mines that are essential for China’s electric vehicles, wind turbines, advanced weaponry, and numerous electronic devices.
Although both Col. Naw Bu, the KIA spokesperson, and Thet Swe, the military’s spokesperson, declined to comment on the situation, local media have confirmed that Kanpaiti fell last week. Ongoing conflict and military regulations have hindered journalists’ travel capability, although reports have been corroborated by witnesses via phone communications.
Unverified videos circulating on social media purportedly depict a KIA member hoisting the group’s flag at a mountain tunnel connecting to China, along with footage claiming to show a substantial cache of weaponry seized by the KIA.
The military’s takeover from the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi occurred in February 2021, igniting fierce combat with established militias tied to Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in border regions that have long sought greater self-governance.
Over the past year, the once-powerful military forces, known as the Tatmadaw, have experienced unprecedented defeats, particularly in eastern regions near the Chinese border and in Rakhine state. This loss intensified after a cooperative offensive by three formidable militias commenced on October 27, 2023.
Additionally, other ethnic-driven militias have rallied to the cause, including the KIA in the northern state of Kachin. Within Kachin’s Special Region 1, the KIA has launched numerous attacks since late September against a rival militia, the New Democratic Army-Kachin (NDA-K), which had been allied with the military government and provided border patrols.
The NDA-K has also held sway over a network of small, unauthorized operations that extract heavy rare earth elements, subsequently sold either directly to China’s large state-owned mining entities or through intermediaries.
According to a May report from environmental advocacy group Global Witness, over 300 unregulated mines in this area contributed to the staggering $1.4 billion sale of rare earth minerals to China last year, often at a significant detriment to local ecosystems and communities. The exact financial influx to the military government versus the NDA-K remains unclear, yet experts note the military’s loss of revenue would be detrimental. Nonetheless, the loss of Kanpaiti may not drastically alter the ongoing conflict’s dynamics, according to insights from Morgan Michaels, an analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies.
“This represents yet another embarrassing setback for the regime but is unlikely to significantly alter their combat capabilities,” he remarked, noting that China had already taken measures to restrict the border to limit KIA activities and that the military likely relies on other revenue sources beyond rare earth minerals.
In January, China played a crucial role in facilitating a ceasefire in northern Shan state through its connections with the ruling regime and various groups within the Three Brotherhood Alliance. However, combat resumed five months later when the ethnic alliance accused the military of breaching the ceasefire. Despite ongoing pressure from Beijing, hostilities have not diminished.
China has also urged the KIA in Kachin to cease hostilities, which have disrupted cross-border trade, but to little avail. In its offensive in September, the KIA quickly captured four towns in Kachin, aside from Kanpaiti, including the NDA-K’s stronghold at Pang War.
KIA forces advanced towards Kanpaiti on November 20. Following their takeover, they have requested that hundreds of displaced residents return, according to a local community leader who chose to remain anonymous due to fear of reprisals. This assessment was supported by a spokesperson for Kachin Human Rights Watch and another local resident who witnessed KIA troops entering the town, both also speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Reports from various Kachin media and local news outlets indicated that around 300 government soldiers managed to flee into China before crossing back into Myanmar through Muse, a town controlled by the regime. The spokesperson for Kachin Human Rights Watch noted they had received reports of regime soldiers evacuating but lacked additional specifics.