**NEW YORK** — Following Donald Trump’s election, Wall Street is actively speculating on the implications of his leadership for the U.S. economy.

Since the election, stock prices for banking institutions, fossil fuel companies, and similar organizations have surged, driven by expectations of tax cuts and reduced regulations favored by Trump. However, the retail sector faces uncertainty as businesses wrestle with the potential impact of tariffs and whether they can absorb the associated costs.

Experts caution investors to be wary of potential overreactions to current market momentum. While campaign promises can often lead to drastic shifts in stock values, these pledges may not always translate into concrete policy. Furthermore, the long-term trajectory of the stock market is frequently influenced more by enduring profit growth than immediate reactions to political developments.

**Technology**

During Trump’s initial term, technology stocks saw significant gains, buoyed by favorable tax policies. However, this relationship was complicated. Trump’s immigration policies raised concerns about access to highly skilled workers, a vital element for the technology sector, while trade tensions disrupted international markets and supply chains.

This time, tech firms could see advantages from anticipated relaxations of antitrust regulations that previously hindered major business consolidations and imposed limits on industry giants such as Google, Apple, and Amazon. Moreover, Trump is likely to encourage advancements in artificial intelligence, an area deemed crucial in the competition for global dominance between the U.S. and China.

Potential drawbacks exist as well, particularly for semiconductor manufacturers like Nvidia, amid concerns about Trump’s trade tariffs and a possible rollback of initiatives aimed at boosting domestic semiconductor production initiated under the Biden administration.

Despite these challenges, notable figures in the tech industry, including leaders from Apple, Amazon, and Google, praised Trump’s election.

**Retail**

The retail sector is faced with significant uncertainty following Trump’s victory. He aims to extend the 2017 tax cuts for individuals and restore business tax benefits that had been diminished. Analysts believe these changes could provide a positive boost for both consumers and retailers.

However, Trump’s trade policies carry considerable risks. His proposed tariffs, with rates as high as 60% on Chinese goods and 10% to 20% on other imports, precipitate fears of shrinking profit margins or necessitating price hikes for retailers. Analysts note that retailers could struggle more than in Trump’s previous term because their operational costs are already elevated.

Many businesses, such as Nike and Warby Parker, are actively seeking to diversify supply chains away from China. Reports reveal plans from shoe retailer Steve Madden to cut Chinese imports significantly in the coming year.

The National Retail Federation warns that if Trump’s tariffs are enacted, consumers could face price increases, exemplifying a potential $80 pair of men’s jeans rising to between $90 and $96.

**Energy**

Trump’s inauguration is likely to propel traditional energy companies while placing renewable energy firms at a disadvantage. His administration’s focus on expanding fossil fuel production, including drilling in environmentally sensitive areas, is expected to favor oil service companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger.

On the other hand, firms involved in clean energy, such as First Solar, may struggle if Trump follows through on cutting tax credits that currently support the sector.

Historically, during Trump’s first term, energy stocks contended with volatility, notably when oil prices unexpectedly dipped during the COVID-19 emergency, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend.

**Health Care**

The health care sector holds potential for gains as drug manufacturers, insurers, and other companies may see a relaxation of regulatory barriers to mergers and a general decrease in regulations. Insurers might experience eased restrictions on Medicare Advantage plans, enhancing their profitability.

However, a second term for Trump might also introduce challenges, including unpredictable drug approvals and possible efforts to dismantle sections of the Affordable Care Act, jeopardizing coverage and subsidies.

**Autos**

The automotive industry is likely to welcome less rigorous regulations, yet the threat of tariffs creates a complex landscape. Trump may aim to eliminate stringent emissions standards and reduce penalties for producing larger vehicles.

Conversely, Trump has voiced intentions to impose tariffs on foreign vehicles, raising concerns for automakers like General Motors and Ford, given significant portions of their production occur in Mexico. Such tariffs could significantly impact profits and vehicle prices, especially as the average price creeps over $47,000.

**Banks**

Trump’s policies could favor banking stocks by stimulating the economy and encouraging loan applications. Analysts suggest a potential shift toward more lenient financial regulations, which could ease burdens on banks that have faced strict regulatory scrutiny since the 2008 financial crisis.

The prospect of increased deal-making activity is anticipated, benefiting investment banks, while regional banks may thrive in a burgeoning economy that fosters new business growth.

**Building Materials and Construction**

The construction sector may navigate a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. Companies could gain from less rigorous regulations but might experience higher material costs.

Homebuilders and construction firms are anticipated to benefit from favorable tax incentives, potentially alleviating housing shortages. However, rising prices for raw materials could limit profits, particularly with proposals to enforce tariffs on steel.

**Crypto**

Donald Trump, once critical of cryptocurrencies, is now advocating for making the U.S. the leading center for crypto finance. His victory has coincided with a surge in cryptocurrency investments, with Bitcoin climbing past $86,000 since the election.

The crypto sector has reacted positively to Trump’s plans for regulatory changes, with hopes that he will dismiss current SEC chair Gary Gensler, who has enforced strict regulations on the industry.