This Sunday’s NFL matchup features the Buffalo Bills (7-2) visiting the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at 1 p.m. EST, broadcasted on CBS. According to BetMGM, the Bills are favored by four points in this contest. The Bills hold a record of 5-4 against the spread, while the Colts are performing better at 7-2. Historically, the Bills lead the series against the Colts with a record of 38-33-1, but the last meeting saw the Colts triumph 41-15 in Buffalo on November 21, 2021. In their respective performances last week, Buffalo outlasted the Dolphins with a score of 30-27, while Indianapolis fell to the Vikings, 21-13.
Examining the offensive statistics, the Bills rank 15th overall, with 17th in rushing and 16th in passing, but are fourth in scoring. Defensively, they are 17th overall, 15th against the run, 16th against the pass, and eighth in scoring. In contrast, the Colts’ offense ranks 22nd overall (tied), with their rushing ranked 16th and passing 22nd, also coming in at 22nd in scoring. On defense, the Colts rank 29th overall, 31st against the run, 26th against the pass, and 12th in scoring. Notably, Buffalo enjoys a strong turnover differential at plus-11, while the Colts are at plus-2.
For Buffalo, running back James Cook is the player to watch. With potential absences from key receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman, Cook may see increased carries. The third-year player is leading the Bills in rushing yards with 496 and has scored seven touchdowns, along with one touchdown reception. He managed ten carries for 44 yards last week, and the Colts have allowed more than 120 rushing yards in seven games this season.
On the Colts’ side, quarterback Joe Flacco is a focal point after a challenging game against Minnesota. At 39, Flacco brings immense experience, which could be beneficial playing at home. However, he understands the necessity for a better performance to give the Colts a fighting chance to win.
A critical matchup to observe is the Buffalo defensive front against the Indianapolis offensive line. Buffalo’s defensive tackle Ed Oliver often disrupts plays, but the Colts may face increased challenges after putting Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly on injured reserve. Starting a rookie center, Tanor Bortolini, alongside an undrafted rookie guard, Dalton Tucker, could leave them vulnerable, despite the possible return of LT Bernhard Raimann from concussion protocol. If Buffalo’s defensive line can dominate, they could stifle the Colts’ offensive efforts.
In terms of injuries, Cooper may be back after resting last week, but Coleman will likely miss another game as Coach Sean McDermott has indicated. Coleman ranks second on the team with 417 receiving yards and shares the lead for touchdowns with three. Watch for WR Curtis Samuel’s status as he has been limited in practice due to a pectoral muscle issue. Cornerback Christian Benford (wrist) is expected to return after sitting out against Miami. For the Colts, the absence of Kelly significantly impacts their offensive line, though Raimann appears ready to return after practicing on Wednesday. Only two players—linebacker Zaire Franklin and wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.—missed practice Wednesday, but both have managed to play through their injuries.
In their historical series, Indianapolis has won two of the last three games against Buffalo, with the Bills having not scored over 27 points against the Colts since January 2010. The first game between these two franchises ended in a tie back in 1970.
Buffalo is on a four-game winning streak after a brief two-game road slump, currently holding a 3-2 away record this season. This marks the 10th time in franchise history the Bills are 7-2 and they seek to achieve their first 8-2 start since 1993. The Bills need a combination of five wins and losses from the New York Jets to clinch their fifth consecutive AFC East title. Quarterback Josh Allen, who started the season without a single interception in his first seven games, has seen some struggles lately, throwing picks in consecutive games and losing two fumbles. Allen is 3-1 when committing turnovers this season and currently holds 184 touchdown passes, second in franchise history behind Hall of Famer Jim Kelly.
In a notable performance, WR Khalil Shakir boasts an impressive reception percentage, catching 42 of 45 passes targeted at him, marking the highest rate in the NFL for such attempts since 1991. Ray Davis’ 63-yard touchdown catch against Miami was also significant, being the longest by a Bills running back since C.J. Spiller’s 66-yarder back in 2012. Buffalo has forced takeaways in all nine games, a feat matched since 2004. Meanwhile, the Colts have stumbled, losing two straight after a strong run of four wins in five games. At home, Indianapolis has secured three consecutive victories following their opening season loss to Houston.
Flacco, having appeared in four games with the Colts this season, looks to improve his completion record as he needs 33 completions to pass Hall of Famer John Elway for 12th place in NFL history. Running back Jonathan Taylor is just 91 yards shy of surpassing Hall of Famer Lenny Moore on the Colts’ all-time rushing list. Additionally, Pittman Jr. has shown resilience with eight receptions for 128 yards since an injury he sustained. Zaire Franklin leads the league with 95 tackles and could break the franchise record for most games with double-digit tackles if he achieves it once more. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is also close to another milestone, needing two sacks to move up on the Colts’ all-time sack list.
For fantasy football players considering options, James Cook stands out as a safer pick under uncertain circumstances regarding available receivers, especially against a weak run defense.